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Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. It was another fantastic day from the DFS article. We ended up having two top-five entries from our sub-10 % Astros stacks. We nailed the slate's top three arms, making it a profitable day. I hope you all were as well. We’re back at it on the betting side today, so let’s pick some winners.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAD (-155)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | MIA: Jesús Luzardo
We start our action today in Miami with a matchup between the Dodgers and the Marlins. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo will toe the rubber for the Marlins. The Dodgers were the sixth-best team in baseball in August against left-hand pitching with a 139 wRC+, .376 wOBA, and a .506 SLG. Since the All-Star break, they have a 131 wRC+ against the split. Led by Mookie Betts and his 242 wRC+, the Dodgers have five regular players with over 125 wRC+ against left-hand pitching since the break.
Jesus Luzardo, over his last 30 days, has surrendered a .368 wOBA, 253 ISO, and a 41.8% hard hit. His opponent, Clayton Kershaw, has allowed only ten hits and four earned runs in his four starts since returning from the IL in mid-August. The Marlins, since the break, own an 86 wRC+, a .299 wOBA, and a .396 SLG against left-hand pitching. Josh Bell and Jon Berti are the only two bats with over a 125 wRC+ against the split during that span. The Dodgers are the better team, with a better arm and offense.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-155) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Royals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: KC (-118)
CWS: Dylan Cease | KC: Brady Singer
Oh, how I love September baseball. We are betting a game between two teams with a combined 96-181 record. Someone has to win. Brady Singer will toe the rubber against the once Cy Young hopeful Dylan Cease tonight. Since the break, Singer has been the better arm. He is 3-3 with a 3.75 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 22.3% K%. Cease, on the other hand, has been abysmal in the second half of the season. He is 3-4 with a 4.63 SIERA, 1.74 WHIP, and a 25.0% K%. He's been worst in August, pitching to a 5.36 SIERA, 8.07 ERA, and a 1.97 WHIP.
The Royals have been the better team since the break against right-hand pitching. They own a 97 wRC+, .319 wOBA, and a .435 SLG against the split. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been the third-worst team against the split since the break. They own a 78 wRC+, a .286 wOBA, and a .370 SLG. They also are in jeopardy of missing their best bat for the third straight game in Luis Robert Jr., who has been nursing a quad injury. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol is shooting for a Wednesday target date to return to the lineup for Robert. I am hammering the Royals moneyline in the first five innings and the game tonight.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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