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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 4th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 58-64-2, -19.2 units
- Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
- Totals: 26-31-1, -8.13 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Braves
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: ATL -260
MIA: Pablo Lopez | ATL: Max Fried
After a Phillies starter let us down once again yesterday, I'll be looking elsewhere for a first-inning under this afternoon. I'll look to Atlanta where the Marlins and Braves will finish up their weekend series. The visiting Marlins will send Pablo Lopez (8-8, 3.64 ERA) to the mound. Lopez has been fine, not great, in the first inning. He's allowed a run in four of 13 starts on the road, and in 16 of 26 starts overall. He tossed a scoreless opening frame against the Braves back on August 12th in Miami.
Conversely, Atlanta ace Max Fried (12-5, 2.56 ERA) will be taking the ball for the Braves. Fried has been excellent overall this season and has been exceptional in the first inning as well. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of his 15 starts at home, which was the only two times he's allowed a first-inning run in any of his 25 starts on the year. While one of those starts did come against the Marlins, that was all the way back on May 29th.
The Marlins have struggled in the first inning this season, scoring in just 12% of first innings on the road and in just 15% of first innings overall. The Braves have been much better, scoring in 17% of first innings at home and in 16% of first inning overall. Neither team has been lighting the scoreboard on fire early of late, with both teams being held scoreless in nine of their last 10.
With this all taken into account, my model gives the first inning under a 63.5% chance of hitting, with a true line of -174. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the line at -142, giving us a solid value margin here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -126
COL: German Marquez | CIN: Nick Lodolo
Since this game was postponed yesterday, I'll run this right back today as I'll heading out to Cincinnati for our second play of the day and the final play of the weekend. While we won't be looking at a first inning under here, we'll be looking at a first-five under.
The visiting Rockies will be sending German Marquez (7-10, 4.97 ERA) to the mound. Marquez has been up and down all season, but it is worth noting he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.91 xFIP. Marquez is also better on the road, coming into this one with a 3.69 ERA on the road compared to a 6.09 ERA at home.
On the other hand, the Reds will be sending southpaw Nick Lodolo (3-5, 4.30 ERA) to the mound. Lodolo is still young and a bit raw, but has shown the upside of being an elite starter. Like Marquez, he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.92 xFIP. Also, like Marquez, he has a split advantage. He's pitched to a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road while pitching to a 2.93 ERA in eight starts at home.
Both of these teams come in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring. While the Reds are better offensively at home, it is worth noting that the Rockies struggle away from Coors Field, averaging 3.02 runs per game on the road, the worst in the league.
These two teams scored five runs in total last night, three of which came in the first five innings. In theory, the two pitchers on the mound this evening are better, and while I don't have first five projections in my model (hopefully coming next season!), my model points to this one staying under.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Enjoy your Labor Day!
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