X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/4/22)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 4th, 2022.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

  • Season to Date: 58-64-2, -19.2 units
  • Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
  • Totals: 26-31-1, -8.13 units
  • Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Braves

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: ATL -260

MIA: Pablo Lopez | ATL: Max Fried

After a Phillies starter let us down once again yesterday, I'll be looking elsewhere for a first-inning under this afternoon. I'll look to Atlanta where the Marlins and Braves will finish up their weekend series. The visiting Marlins will send Pablo Lopez (8-8, 3.64 ERA) to the mound. Lopez has been fine, not great, in the first inning. He's allowed a run in four of 13 starts on the road, and in 16 of 26 starts overall. He tossed a scoreless opening frame against the Braves back on August 12th in Miami. 

Conversely, Atlanta ace Max Fried (12-5, 2.56 ERA) will be taking the ball for the Braves. Fried has been excellent overall this season and has been exceptional in the first inning as well. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of his 15 starts at home, which was the only two times he's allowed a first-inning run in any of his 25 starts on the year. While one of those starts did come against the Marlins, that was all the way back on May 29th.

The Marlins have struggled in the first inning this season, scoring in just 12% of first innings on the road and in just 15% of first innings overall. The Braves have been much better, scoring in 17% of first innings at home and in 16% of first inning overall. Neither team has been lighting the scoreboard on fire early of late, with both teams being held scoreless in nine of their last 10.

With this all taken into account, my model gives the first inning under a 63.5% chance of hitting, with a true line of -174. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the line at -142, giving us a solid value margin here. 

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Reds

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -126

COL: German Marquez | CIN: Nick Lodolo

Since this game was postponed yesterday, I'll run this right back today as I'll heading out to Cincinnati for our second play of the day and the final play of the weekend. While we won't be looking at a first inning under here, we'll be looking at a first-five under.

The visiting Rockies will be sending German Marquez (7-10, 4.97 ERA) to the mound. Marquez has been up and down all season, but it is worth noting he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.91 xFIP. Marquez is also better on the road, coming into this one with a 3.69 ERA on the road compared to a 6.09 ERA at home.

On the other hand, the Reds will be sending southpaw Nick Lodolo (3-5, 4.30 ERA) to the mound. Lodolo is still young and a bit raw, but has shown the upside of being an elite starter. Like Marquez, he's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 3.92 xFIP. Also, like Marquez, he has a split advantage. He's pitched to a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road while pitching to a 2.93 ERA in eight starts at home. 

Both of these teams come in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring. While the Reds are better offensively at home, it is worth noting that the Rockies struggle away from Coors Field, averaging 3.02 runs per game on the road, the worst in the league.

These two teams scored five runs in total last night, three of which came in the first five innings. In theory, the two pitchers on the mound this evening are better, and while I don't have first five projections in my model (hopefully coming next season!), my model points to this one staying under.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Enjoy your Labor Day!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Royce O'Neale31 mins ago

Ruled Out For Thursday
Zay Flowers56 mins ago

Not Practicing Friday, Highly Unlikely To Play Saturday
Tari Eason57 mins ago

Tagged As Doubtful For Thursday
Santi Aldama1 hour ago

Questionable Thursday Against The Rockets
Keyonte George3 hours ago

To Miss A Third Consecutive Game
John Collins3 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Onyeka Okongwu3 hours ago

Questionable For Meeting With Suns
Trae Young3 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jaren Jackson Jr.4 hours ago

May Sit On Thursday Due To Thigh Soreness
Desmond Bane4 hours ago

Might Miss Another Game With An Ankle Issue
Ja Morant4 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday
Draymond Green4 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday's Action
Stephen Curry4 hours ago

Questionable Thursday
Garrett Crochet5 hours ago

Boston Discussing Long-Term Deal
Matthew Tkachuk5 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers In Victory
Petr Mrazek5 hours ago

Stands Tall Against Colorado
Connor Bedard5 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist On Wednesday
Logan Thompson5 hours ago

Leads The Way In Overtime Victory
Pierre-Luc Dubois5 hours ago

Scores Twice On Wednesday
Jeff Petry6 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Khris Middleton16 hours ago

Available For Wednesday's Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo16 hours ago

Cleared For Wednesday
Damian Lillard16 hours ago

Upgraded To Available On Wednesday
Nikola Jokic18 hours ago

Unavailable On Wednesday
Miles McBride18 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Karl-Anthony Towns18 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Andre Drummond18 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Alexandre Sarr18 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Bub Carrington18 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Trent Miner19 hours ago

Set For First Career Start On Wednesday
Beck Malenstyn19 hours ago

To Remain Out On Thursday
Jiri Kulich20 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Thatcher Demko20 hours ago

Unavailable Wednesday
Elias Pettersson20 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Against Capitals
Jonathan Drouin20 hours ago

Out Wednesday
Aaron Ekblad20 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Davis Thompson21 hours ago

Starts 2025 Season Well
PGA21 hours ago

J.T. Poston Disappoints At The Sentry
Chris Kirk21 hours ago

Sputters At The Sentry
Billy Horschel21 hours ago

Looks Forward To Sony Open
Brian Harman21 hours ago

Gets 2025 Started With A Rough Start
PGA21 hours ago

Cameron Davis Finishes Strong At The Sentry
Keegan Bradley21 hours ago

Starts 2025 Season Well
NFL21 hours ago

Bill Belichick Has No Plans To Return To The NFL
Deebo Samuel Sr.22 hours ago

49ers Plan To Bring Deebo Samuel Sr. Back Next Year
Zay Flowers23 hours ago

Absent From Wednesday's Practice
Braxton Garrett23 hours ago

To Miss 2025 Season Following Elbow Surgery
Taylor Pendrith1 day ago

Is A Dark-Horse Pick For Sony Open
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Expected To Practice On Wednesday
Eric Cole1 day ago

Looking For Bounce-Back Performance At Sony Open
Zay Flowers1 day ago

A Long Shot To Play On Wild-Card Weekend
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

A Big Name To Stay Away From At Sony Open
Nick Dunlap1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Sony Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Making Season Debut At Sony Open
Hideki Matsuyama1 day ago

Looks To Make History At Waialae
Sean Monahan1 day ago

Exits Tuesday's Game Early
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Exits On Tuesday With Upper-Body Injury
Brock Faber1 day ago

Sustains Injury On Tuesday
Steven Stamkos1 day ago

Exits Early On Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Sidelined With Upper-Body Injury
Josh Morrissey1 day ago

Day-To-Day With Lower Body Injury
Tanner Scott2 days ago

Mets Meet With Tanner Scott
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Signs One-Year Contract With San Francisco
NFL2 days ago

Ashton Jeanty Declares For 2025 NFL Draft
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Colin Miller2 days ago

To Miss At Least Two Weeks
Tua Tagovailoa2 days ago

Dolphins Have "No Concern At All" About Tua Tagovailoa's Long-Term Health
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Raiders Fire Head Coach Antonio Pierce
David Montgomery2 days ago

Expected To Return For Divisional Round
Tyreek Hill2 days ago

Dolphins Say Tyreek Hill Did Not Request A Trade
Brandon Woodruff2 days ago

Hopes To Be Ready By Opening Day
Zay Flowers2 days ago

Not At Tuesday's Practice
Luke Clanton2 days ago

A Player To Watch At Sony Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of Sony Open
Russell Henley2 days ago

A Course Horse At Sony Open
Stephan Jaeger2 days ago

A Risky Option At Sony Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Makes 2025 Debut At Sony Open
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Hawaii
Sepp Straka2 days ago

A Safe Option At Sony Open
Michael Thorbjornsen2 days ago

A Dark Horse At Sony Open
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Retaining Brian Callahan As Head Coach
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Fire GM Ran Carthon
Brent Rooker2 days ago

Signs Five-Year Extension
Nolan Arenado3 days ago

Red Sox Emerge As Strong Candidate To Land Nolan Arenado
Christian Watson3 days ago

Packers Confirm Torn ACL For Christian Watson
Ezekiel Elliott3 days ago

Signing With Chargers
Michael Lorenzen3 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Kansas City
Gavin Lux3 days ago

Traded To Cincinnati
Kyler Murray3 days ago

"100 Percent" Chance That Kyler Murray Will Start For Cardinals In 2025
Brock Purdy3 days ago

Wants Contract Done Sooner Than Later
Christian McCaffrey3 days ago

"Definitely Close" To Being Fully Recovered
Jayden Daniels3 days ago

Commanders "Not Concerned" With Jayden Daniels' Leg Soreness
Amari Cooper3 days ago

Bills Hopeful Amari Cooper Will Be Available In Wild-Card Round
Luis Arraez3 days ago

Yankees Talking With Padres About Luis Arraez
Clayton Kershaw5 days ago

Intends To Pitch In 2025, Expected To Return To Los Angeles
Charlie Morton6 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP