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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 3, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 64-47-4 (+2.86 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Brewers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL -105
PHI: Ranger Suarez | MIL: Wade Miley
I'll start out in Milwaukee as the Phillies and Brewers close out their weekend series. The Brewers have taken the first two in this series, but I'll be backing Philly to take the finale... or at least start out in front.
The Phillies will be sending Ranger Suarez (2-6, 3.88 ERA) to the mound. Suarez is making his first start in a few weeks, his last outing coming in the form of a losing effort despite throwing 6.1 innings with just two runs allowed. While his xERA sits at 4.45, his xFIP is just 3.98. He comes into this one with a projected SIERA of 4.27, according to my model. The Mariners project fairly average against him today, with a .323 wOBA.
The Brewers on the other hand will send Wade Miley (7-3, 3.17 ERA) to the mound. The 36-year-old righty is due for some massive regression, however, with a 4.54 xERA and 4.81 xFIP. The Phillies' offense has been scorching hot over the last few weeks, and projects to a .360 wOBA against Miley tonight. Miley himself projects to a 4.93 SIERA, giving the Phillies both a pitching and lineup advantage here.
Prior to this series, the Phils had been hot. Their bullpen is what's been holding them back from really creating separation in the Wild Card race. While I do think they take care of business today, I'll keep their struggling bullpen out of it and back them on the first five moneyline, which we can get at -112 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.89 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM +130
SEA: George Kirby | NYM: Tylor Megill
I'll wrap our Sunday up in Queens, as the Mariners and Mets wrap up their series.
The Mariners will send George Kirby (10-8, 3.28 ERA). Kirby has been excellent this season and while his expected numbers do show some signs of regression, it isn't much. His xERA sits at 3.79, xFIP at 3.54, and he projects to a 3.39 SIERA. He'll take on a Mets offense that has hit relatively well lately and projects to a .351 wOBA this afternoon.
It'll be Tylor Megill (7-7, 5.29 ERA) taking the ball for the Mets today. Megill has certainly been an interesting case across his 20 starts this season, bringing in a 6.39 xERA but a 4.95 xFIP. He's allowing home runs at an alarming rate (13.2% to be exact), and today he projects to a 4.08 SIERA. That isn't too bad, all things considered. But he will be taking on a scorching-hot Mariners offense that projects to a .351 wOBA today.
Both of the first two games in this series have been settled by one run, with the Mets taking it home Friday night and the Mariners evening the series yesterday. Today, however, I'll be backing the Mariners to close out the series and continue to separate themselves from the Astros and Rangers in the AL West.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-155), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.65 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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