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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. The regular season is winding down, which creates more variables and more opportunities to gain an edge. Football season can wait because I'll be all over baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water this season, going 21-21-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting back in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for September 16, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Cardinals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI (-118)
PHI: Ranger Suarez | STL: Miles Mikolas
We'll kick things off with a showdown between the Phillies and Cardinals. While St. Louis is playing irrelevant baseball these days, Philadelphia is looking to cement its spot in the postseason. Regardless of the outcome, the pitching in this game pales in comparison to the offense, and I expect a high-scoring affair.
Ranger Suarez takes the hill for the Phillies on Saturday. Through 19 starts, he carries a weak 4.38 xERA and 3.92 xFIP. That includes other mediocre numbers, like a .260 xBA, .405 xSLG, .322 xwOBA, and an 8.7% walk rate. Suarez isn't horrible, but he's unlikely to make it out of this matchup unscathed.
While there has been a noticeable dip in production from last season, the Cardinals remain one of the league's more imposing lineups. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have deep track records of crushing left-handed pitching, each with career OPS marks north of .960 against southpaws. Meanwhile, other names like Willson Contreras, Tyler O'Neill, and Jordan Walker are always capable of big performances. As a whole, St. Louis scores 4.6 runs per game on the season, including a 102 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
The Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the bump. His 4.75 ERA isn't anything to get excited about, and the advanced metrics are even less forgiving. Mikolas sports an atrocious 5.46 xERA and 4.81 xFIP across 31 starts. That consists of a horrible .292 xBA, .493 xSLG, 42.5% hard-hit rate, 9.1% barrel rate, 90.3 MPH average exit velocity, 15.4% strikeout rate, and 16.3% whiff rate. Mikolas doesn't walk many hitters, but that's the extent of the positive takeaways.
Philadelphia's offense has come alive in the second half. They're scoring 5.5 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .797 OPS and .341 wOBA. We probably don't need to do the full roll call, but navigating Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto is no easy task.
With a lack of reliable pitching on both sides of this game, it would be surprising to see a low-scoring outcome. Either by one or both of these offenses popping off, I expect double-digit run scoring.
Pick: Over 9 Total Runs (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CHC (-118)
CHC: Kyle Hendricks | ARI: Zach Davies
We move on to game two of the Cubs-Diamondbacks series. With the season winding down, both teams need to win. While Arizona is tied for the final Wild Card slot, the Cubs are holding down the second Wild Card seed. These two teams may seem indiscernible according to their records, but they are on vastly divergent trajectories, and that's where an edge emerges.
Kyle Hendricks will get the start for the Cubs. Dominance evades him, but he's a poster boy for reliability. Through 21 starts, he owns a middling 4.08 xERA. That includes an elite 85.1 MPH average exit velocity, 31% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, 34.6% chase rate, and 4.2% chase rate. Hendricks has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven appearances and in 17 of his 21 outings this season. A quality start is well within the range of outcomes today.
Arizona brings a struggling offense. After a productive first half, they're scoring just four runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a weak 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .716 OPS and .312 wOBA. The Diamondbacks have fallen off dramatically. Hendricks held them to only two runs over 5 2/3 innings pitched just six days ago.
For the Diamondbacks, Zach Davies will be called on to pitch. Through 16 starts, he carries a 5.42 xERA and 4.88 xFIP. That consists of a .279 xBA, .450 xSLG, 42.9% hard-hit rate, 89.8 MPH average exit velocity, 10.6% walk rate, and 18.8% strikeout rate. In short, Davies is not good at this stage of his career, and he'll have his hands full today.
The Cubs have operated one of baseball's best offenses in the second half. They're scoring a blistering 5.7 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .808 OPS and .348 wOBA. Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, and Jeimer Candelario make for a deadly lineup, and I can't envision Zach Davies keeping Chicago's offense quiet.
On both sides of the ball, the Cubs hold the advantage in this game. You can comfortably pick them to win by multiple runs.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 Run Line (+140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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