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Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 16th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 69-69-2, -16.29 units
- Sides: 33-34-1, -12.53 units
- Totals: 35-35-1, -5.46 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET +128
CWS: Lucas Giolito | DET: Matt Manning
After we had a rough Tuesday, we answered back with a sweep on Wednesday, cashing both the Pirates/Reds first-inning under and the Rangers F5 money line. We'll run back two first-inning under plays, starting out in Detroit. The White Sox come into town and will be sending Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.18 ERA) to the mound. Giolito, like the rest of the White Sox, has been a major disappointment this season, but Giolito has been solid in the first inning.
Giolito is 11-3 to the first inning under on the road this year, as well as 19-7 overall. This will be his fourth start against the Tigers this season, and he'll be looking to finish the year by keeping them off the scoreboard in the first inning in each of those four starts.
The Tigers will be sending Matt Manning (2-2, 3.73 ERA) to the mound. Manning has been perfect in terms of first-inning run prevention at home, holding opponents off the scoreboard in each of his six starts at Comerica. He's had some struggles on the road, with his overall first-inning under record sitting at 7-3. He did allow a first-inning tally against the White Sox in his last start against them back on August 13 but has kept opponents scoreless in the opening frame in four out of five starts since.
The White Sox's offensive struggles have been a key reason they've underperformed this season, and that starts in the first inning. They've been held scoreless in 73.2% of first innings on the road and in 74.8% of first innings overall, including seven of their last ten. Conversely, the Tigers have been held scoreless in 76.4% of first innings at home as well as 81.7% of first innings overall. They've also been held scoreless in each of their last ten opening frames.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the first-inning draw at -170, the first-inning under sits at just -130. My model has the under at a 63.2% chance of hitting, or -172 odds. Technically both plays are +EV here, but you might as well save the 18 cents and just take the under.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -178
PHI: Ranger Suarez | ATL: Max Fried
I'll head down to Atlanta for the second first-inning under play of the day. This series is an interesting one, as the Braves are looking to make a climb to the top of the NL East rankings while the Phillies try to take another step forward in solidifying their wild card spot. The Phils will send Ranger Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA) to the mound. Suarez has had some struggles of late, but has been great in the first inning this season, going 11-2 to the first inning under on the road, 19-6 overall, as well as 3-0 against Atlanta.
On the other hand, the Braves will be sending Max Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA) to the mound. Fried has been excellent overall this season, and even better in the first inning. He's 14-2 to the first inning under at home as well as 25-2 overall. This is the third start he'll be making against Philadelphia this season, and he's held them scoreless in the opening frame in each of the first two starts.
While both of these offenses have plenty of firepower in their lineups to put runs up on the board, it takes them a little bit to wake it up. The Phillies have been held scoreless in 80.3% of first innings on the road and in 73% of first innings overall, as well as nine of their last ten. Conversely, the Braves have been held scoreless in 73.6% of first innings at home and in 74.1% of first innings overall, including eight of their last ten.
I'm honestly surprised how low this line is, as FanDuel Sportsbook has it at just -115 as I'm writing this. With all factors considered, my model has it at -186, with implied odds of 65.05%. We're getting strong value here, and let's start our weekend off with a bang.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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