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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 14th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 67-69-2, -17.63 units
- Sides: 32-34-1, -13.14 units
- Totals: 34-35-1, -6.19 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -162
PIT: Roansy Contreras | CIN: Nick Lodolo
We had a bit of a rough day yesterday, dropping both of our first inning underplays. It was unfortunate that Cory Abbott surrendered his first first-inning run yesterday, but we'll look at another "perfect" pitcher this afternoon. The Pirates will send Roansy Contreras (5-4, 3.29 ERA) to the mound. Contreras is making his 15th start overall and has gone all of 2022 without allowing a run in the first, including six starts on the road.
The Reds will be sending Nick Lodolo (4-5, 3.78 ERA) to the mound. Lodolo has had a bit of an up-and-down rookie campaign, getting touched up in one start while following up with a gem in the next. He's been solid in the first inning this season, though, tossing a scoreless first in seven of nine home starts as well as in 11 of 15 overall.
As I've mentioned countless times in these articles this season, the Pirates struggle heavily in terms of scoring in the first inning. They've been held scoreless in just over 82.5% of first innings on the road this season, as well as in just under 81.5% of games overall, and eight of their last 10. The Reds similarly have struggled in the opening frame, being held scoreless in just under 74% of first innings at home, as well as in 75.5% of first innings overall, and in eight of their last 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -138, a respectable line. However, my model has the first inning under a 68.11% chance of hitting, good for "true odds" of -214. Let's start the day off strong with a W.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Rangers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TEX -162
OAK: JP Sears | TEX: Dane Dunning
I'll head down to the Dallas-Fort Worth area for my second play of the day, this time a first five money line. The Athletics will be sending southpaw JP Sears (5-2, 3.33 ERA) to the mound. While his 3.33 ERA looks great at first glance, it is a tad misleading. Sears has allowed a whopping 35.7% hard contact this season and brings in an xFIP of 4.62. My model projects him to a 4.34 xFIP today and a 42.53% hard contact rate.
On the other hand, the Rangers will be sending Dane Dunning (3-8, 4.39 ERA) to the mound. While Sears has certainly been "lucky" this year, Dunning has been slightly unlucky. He has allowed a 33% hard contact rate on the season but brings in an xFIP of just 4.13. My model has that number dipping a bit to 4.19 today, but he does project to allow just a 29.03% hard contact rate, seemingly giving the Rangers the starting pitching advantage in this one.
While Sears did shut the Rangers out across five innings back on August 16th, I consider this to be more of an outlier than a trend. Sears has allowed 12 runs in 19 innings since that start against Texas, including a two-inning, six-earned run performance against the White Sox last Thursday. Dane Dunning beat the A's in his last start, tossing six innings and allowing two runs while striking out four.
The Rangers have hit lefties well this year and just roughed up Oakland southpaw Ken Waldichuk for five earned runs in five innings last night. For that reason, I'll back the Rangers on the first five money line.
Pick: Rangers F5 Money Line (-164) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you soon!
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