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Every Wednesday, all season long, I've been here recommending some betting picks to you all, and even while this may be the busiest week of my recent life, I am definitely not about to miss a Wednesday betting piece! Bear with me if I am somewhat brief in my justifications today, but I do have several games that I have a strong angle on, and if you're down to tail me on those spots, then good luck to us both!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SFG (-130)
CLE: Logan Allen | SFG: Kyle Harrison
This game feels like a candidate for an under as two below-average offenses face off against a couple of pretty talented rookie left-handed pitchers.
But this time of year totals are wacky and you may have already been burned by bullpens this season (I know I have) that come in and make a mess of a 2-1 game in the 7th inning.
Logan Allen has had a great season this year for Cleveland and I normally wouldn't pick against him in this spot, but I like this matchup a good bit more his opponent, Kyle Harrison.
While Harrison is making just his fifth big-league start, he has already flashed a huge ceiling as he whiffed 11 Reds over six innings of shutout baseball back in late August. Harrison is a slightly bigger prospect than Allen with better raw stuff and the matchup here against the struggling Guardians is really what interests me the most.
Cleveland is 26th in baseball over the last month with an 83 wRC+ against LHP. This lineup they are rolling out against lefties is...well, pathetic. Jose Ramirez is quite honestly the only really dangerous bat against LHP that Harrison should work around. Hopefully, Harrison can get some run support from his offense, but I have to give him and the Giants the advantage here at home and this money line is a pretty decent value at only -130.
Pick: SFG ML (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-180)
ATL: Spencer Strider | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
The last several starts from Spencer Strider have been anything than what he have come to expect from him. Giving up four runs to a good Dodgers team while still striking out nine hitters is forgiveable, but getting shelled by the Cardinals was really off brand.
Perhaps Strider is slowing down a bit, but I am not convinced. We haven't seen his velocity dip or anything to make us think he's still not a flamethrowing stud.
Strider has had the Phillies number so far this season. In two starts (admittedly both were back in May and June), he's struck out 18 over 12 innings while allowing just three earned runs. The Braves have actually won all six starts that Strider has made against Philly going back to last season.
Picking on the Braves with LHP is a tall task as they regularly pound lefties. Sanchez is having a nice season, but I am not sure he's up to the task of matching Strider pitch for pitch. The Braves rank fourth in MLB in wRC+ against lefties over the last 30 days and have had strong splits against Southpaws all season long.
This has been a wild series so far with the Phillies having taken two of the first three games in high-scoring affairs. I just think the pitching matchup is lopsided enough here that Atlanta can pull away with their bats against Sanchez and a very dicey Philly bullpen.
Pick: ATL -1.5 (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Bonus Bet: Arizona ML (-142) - If the good Zac Gallen shows up then this is a major mismatch as the Mets are rolling with lefty Joey Lucchesi!
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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