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Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 13th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 67-67-2, -15.63 units
- Sides: 32-34-1, -13.14 units
- Totals: 34-33-1, -4.19 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +134
BAL: Dean Kremer | WSH: Cory Abbott
We finished Sunday 1-1, with an RBI double by Bryce Harper ruining the sweep. We'll be running back two first-inning unders today as I've found some really solid value there. We'll be headed to D.C. for the first one, where the visiting Baltimore Orioles will send Dean Kremer (6-5, 3.23 ERA) to the mound. Kremer has been rather good in the opening frame this season, and while he has allowed a first-inning run in three of eight starts on the road, he's allowed a run in just four first-inning runs in 16 starts overall.
The Nationals will send righty Cory Abbott (0-2, 4.22 ERA) to the mound. While we backed Washington starter Anibal Sanchez in a first inning under play on Sunday and he let us down, I can't say I can expect more of the same from Abbott today. Abbot has been perfect in the first inning across all five starts, not surrendering a run in any of them, three of which came at Nationals Park.
The Nationals have had a tough go in the first inning so far this season, scoring in just under 24% of first innings on the road and just under 27% of first innings overall, and have scored a run in just two of their last 10 games. The Orioles have had similar luck in the first, scoring in roughly 21% of first innings overall, and just over 20% of first innings on the road, as well as three of their last ten.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at just -106, proving to be solid value as my model has the under at a 63.3% chance of hitting, good for true odds of -172.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF +138
ATL: Kyle Wright | SF: Jakob Junis
I'll head out West to the Bay for our second first inning under of the evening as the Braves and Giants continue on their series. The Braves will look to bounce back following last night's loss by sending Kyle Wright (17-5, 3.23 ERA) to the mound. Wright hasn't had the best season on the road in the first inning, allowing a run in five of 11 first innings. However, he's been great in an overall aspect, allowing a run in just six of 26 starts.
On the other hand, the Giants will be sending Jakob Junis (4-5, 3.98 ERA) to the mound. Junis, like Nationals starter Cory Abbott, has been nothing short of perfect in the first inning. He's kept opponents off the board in each of his seven starts at Oracle Park, as well as all 14 of his starts overall.
The Braves have been rather consistent both at home and on the road in terms of scoring in the first inning this season, scoring in just over 26.5% of first innings at each location, as well as in seven of their last 10. The Giants have been slightly worse in this aspect, scoring in just over 22% of first innings at home, and in 21% of first innings overall. They've scored in two of their last 10.
My model gives the first inning under a 60.92% good for -156 odds. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -125 despite the game total currently sitting at 7.5, proving us some more solid value. Let's have a nice bounce-back evening and go 2-0 on our plays.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you soon!
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