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Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. Yesterday was full of land mines with the weather as we’re getting to that time of the year as we enter late September baseball. I know it’s football season, but here at RotoBaller, we're still locked into baseball. I hope you all were as well. We’re back at it on the betting side today, so let’s pick some winners.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS (-130)
NYY: Carlos Rodon | BOS: Kutter Crawford
We start our action today in Boston with a matchup in the historic rivalry between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Southpaw Carlos Rodon will toe the rubber for the Yankees. Rodon has a 6.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a .246 BAA on the season. His last time out against the Detroit Tigers, he had his worst start of the season, allowing seven earned runs on eight hits. The Red Sox, on the season, are right in the middle of the pack with a 101 wRC+ against left-hand pitching.
I spoke about Kutter Crawford and this matchup yesterday in the DFS article. In the second half of the season, the Yankees own an 80 wRC+ and a 25.9% K% against right-hand pitching. They will send eight right-handed bats to the plate tonight. Crawford, on the season, has been dominant against right-handed bats. He has a 25.0% K%, .285 wOBA, and a .176 ISO over the last 30 days against righties compared to a 15.4 % K%, .349 wOBA, and .182 ISO against left-hand bats. Crawford is in a perfect spot to capitalize on his strengths.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Royals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS (-125)
CWS: Dylan Cease | KC: Brady Singer
Oh, how I love September baseball. We are betting a game between two teams with a combined 99-188 record. Brady Singer will toe the rubber against the once Cy Young hopeful Dylan Cease tonight. These arms have struggled tremendously over their last three and four starts. Brady Singer has made three starts since August 19. Over that span, he has a 9.95 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, .415 BAA, and has allowed six home runs. Dylan Cease has made four starts over that span. He has a 9.30 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, .337 BAA, and has allowed five home runs.
Guaranteed Rate Field has always played as one of the best hitting parks in the big leagues. Both offenses are healthy at the moment and have several players who are in good form. The Royals have several players over the last 30 days with wRC+ over 125, including Edward Olivares with 319 wRC+ and Nick Loftin with 183 wRC+. Yoan Moncada and Elvis Andrus lead the White Sox with 156 wRC+ and 154 wRC+ over that span. This isn't even mentioning the big bats of Bobby Witt Jr. and Luis Robert Jr.
I will use the 50% boost on DraftKings for this bet. I will be taking the over at 7.5 runs for -111. For the article, I will use FanDuel to take over 8.5 for -114.
Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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