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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, September 10th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 64-66-2, -16.69 units
- Sides: 32-34-1, -13.14 units
- Totals: 31-32-1, -5.25 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -260
WSH: Erick Fedde | PHI: Ranger Suarez
After finishing 1-1 yesterday due to an unfortunate two-out home run from Freddie Freeman, we'll turn it around starting this evening in Philadephia. The Nationals will send right-hander Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.08 ERA) to the mound. Fedde is due for some positive regression, given his 4.67 xFIP, but still has to see through a tough matchup today against the Phillies lineup that projects to a .536 wOBA + ISO and 38.48% hard contact rate today.
On the other hand, the Phillies will be sending southpaw Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.52 ERA) to the mound. Suarez has been excellent in the second half of the season, and while he's been slightly "lucky" (3.70 xFIP), his 22.8% hard contact allowed and 9% walk rate should not be overlooked.
The Phillies have just flat-out dominated the season series between these two teams, winning 11 of the 13 matchups, including a 5-3 victory last night. However, we won't be taking the Phillies' money line here. Instead, we'll be taking them to win the first five innings. The Phils haven't been much worse against Washington in that aspect, winning the first five in ten out of the 13 games they've played this year, including each of Suarez's starts.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SD +142
LAD: Julio Urias | SD: Blake Snell
I'll head out to San Diego for the second play of the evening, another first inning under. We backed this play on yesterday when Dustin May took on Mike Clevinger, but that two-out solo home run by Freddie Freeman ended up costing us a sweep. The Dodgers will be sending Julio Urias (15-7, 2.29 ERA) to the hill. Urias has been excellent overall this season, as well as in the first inning, allowing runs in just two of 14 starts on the road, and 19 of 27 starts overall.
Blake Snell (6-8, 3.73 ERA) will be on the other side of this matchup. While he's not having the Cy Young-quality season that Julio Urias is, it's arguable that Snell has been even better than Urias in the opening frame. Snell's allowed a first-inning run in just two of nine starts at home and in just three of 19 starts overall.
The Dodgers, as previously mentioned, are a daunting offense capable of striking at any moment. They've been among the best in the league scoring in the opening frame, putting a run across in roughly 35% of first innings on the road and in 37% of games overall. However, they've been held scoreless in eight of their last ten. Conversely, the Padres have scored in roughly 27% of first innings at home, but in just 24% of first innings overall, as well as being held scoreless in seven out of their last ten.
My model gives the first inning under a very nice 59.93% chance of hitting, good for odds of -150, while FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -138. It's worth noting that Blake Snell did hold the Dodgers scoreless in the first inning in his lone start this season against the Dodgers, while Urias has held the Padres scoreless in each of his two starts against them in 2022.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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