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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 1, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 63-47-3 (+2.06 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +136
MIA: Eury Perez | WSH: Jake Irvin
I'll start things off out in D.C., where the Marlins will come to town for a weekend series.
It'll be Eury Perez (5-4, 2.68 ERA) taking the ball for the Marlins tonight. The rookie has clearly been excellent this season and while he is due for some regression (3.40 xERA, 3.79 xFIP), it really isn't much against the Nationals tonight especially. Perez just tossed six innings of ball against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing one unearned run on three hits while striking out seven. He's allowed just one earned run in 11 innings against the Nationals this season, and Washington projects to just a .274 wOBA against Perez's pitch types.
Jake Irvin will take the mound for the Nationals tonight. Irvin (3-5, 4.30 ERA) has good numbers on the surface but is due for some regression (5.16 xERA, 5.12 xFIP). The rookie right-hander projects to a 4.11 SIERA tonight, which isn't horrible, but doesn't match up great against the Marlins. Miami projects to a .332 wOBA against him, giving them a solid offensive advantage.
The Nationals do have a minor projected bullpen advantage here (3.84 to 3.94), and we're actually getting better odds on the first five moneyline here. We'll grab it at -156 on FanDuel.
Pick: Marlins F5 Moneyline (-156), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.64 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Rockies
O/U: 12 | Moneyline: COL +158
TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu | COL: Chris Flexen
We'll finish our Friday night in the same place we finished our Monday night: out at Coors Field. We smashed the over on Monday night, but tonight we'll be backing the visiting Blue Jays as they head into town for a weekend set.
The Jays will send Hyun Jin Ryu (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the mound. Ryu's pitched just 24 innings this season across five starts, and is due for a bit of regression; bringing in a 3.40 xERA and 3.74 xFIP. He doesn't project all that great, with a projected 4.30 SIERA. But he projects to a 48.13% ground ball rate. Colorado projects very poorly, bringing in a .255 wOBA against Ryu's pitch types.
Colorado will hand the ball to Chris Flexen (1-6, 6.94 ERA) tonight. While my old friend "KBO Chris" had two solid seasons in Seattle, he's really struggled this season. While he does seem due for some positive regression (5.69 xERA, 4.93 xFIP), I can't imagine that coming tonight. Flexen projects to a 4.54 SIERA, giving the Blue Jays a small pitching advantage. Where the Blue Jays will pull away is on offense, as they project to a .329 wOBA against Flexen's pitch types.
The Blue Jays also have a massive bullpen advantage here (3.60 to 4.55). I'll back Toronto on the run line, which we can get at -125 on FanDuel.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-125), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.8 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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