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It's Monday, August 8th, the start of a new week, and a new opportunity to bet on some MLB games. There is a seven-game MLB slate tonight beginning at 7:05 pm Eastern Time. This article will give a couple of my favorite picks for Monday, August 8th, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -140
TOR: Yusei Kikuchi| BAL: Jordan Lyles
This is a game I was a bit surprised to see the line shake out the way it has. At home, Jordan Lyles has a 2.68 ERA vs. a 5.70 ERA away. Why is this? Who knows, but it's something I am going to roll with until it changes. Yusei Kikuchi has a 5.74 ERA away vs. a 4.22 ERA at home. Either way, he is not having a good season. Overall these pitchers are very similar, however, by it being in Baltimore, Lyles has an advantage tonight.
What Toronto has going for them is that Baltimore does not hit lefties well. They are 25th in OBP against LHP, 18th in ISO against LHP, and they have a 92 wRC+ against LHP. On the other side, Toronto is a great offense against right-handed pitching. They are fourth in OBP against RHP, sixth in ISO against RHP, and they have a 116 wRC+ against RHP.
With the bullpens, Baltimore has the third-best bullpen ERA at 3.01 while Toronto's is 14th at 3.88. Baltimore's is pretty good while Toronto's is average with a good closer.
If I had to pick a winner at the odds, I would go with Baltimore because I think those +130 odds are pretty favorable. Instead, I am going to go with the under 9.5 runs. Jordan Lyles doesn't allow many runs at home and Baltimore has a good bullpen. On the other side, Kikuchi is not good, but Baltimore does not hit left-handed pitching well.
Pick: UNDER 9.5 Runs (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYY -120
NYY: Jameson Taillon| SEA: Logan Gilbert
This should be a pretty fun series in a playoff type of atmosphere. Jameson Taillon and Logan Gilbert will duel in Game One of this series! Gilbert has a 3.09 ERA but a 3.80 xFIP while Taillon has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.81 xFIP! This matchup does not get much closer than that!
The Yankees against RHP have the third highest OBP, third highest ISO, and a wRC+ of 119. The Mariners have the 15th-highest OBP, 14th-highest ISO, and a wRC+ of 104. In other words, the Yankees are elite against right-handed hitting and hitting in general. The Mariners are average against right-handed hitting.
The Yankees are coming into this game in a bit of a slump. They lose two of three against Seattle in New York and then got swept by the Cardinals in Saint Louis. It's a good season and good teams go through rough patches. They could break out of it at any time, but while they are not playing well, I am going to go with Seattle at plus odds.
Overall, the Yankees are the better team but this particular game is a coin flip for me. It's better to take the side of the coin with the plus odds than the minus odds in the long run.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+108), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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