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We are almost to the weekend, friends, so hang in there one more day at work and you shall be rewarded with 14 baseball games to wager on today! We actually have two teams off today (Oakland and San Francisco) and a handful of day games so there are just 11 games going off at 7 PM EST or later. I'm filling in today for my good friend John Brubaker who usually does Friday bets for you all but he's still away on a trip and just got engaged! So if you're someone who follows John on Twitter, jump on there and congratulate him on his engagement.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 4, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-166)
ATL: Max Fried | CHC: Kyle Hendricks
I can't help myself, I had three bets I really liked and wanted to share today. So I need to keep these blurbs somewhat short and sweet. Let's cut right to the chase.
This game features the National's League's best overall offense this season (Atlanta) and the hottest offense over the last few weeks (Chicago). The Braves come into today's game averaging 5.4 runs per contest over the last month while the Cubs have been scoring nearly seven runs per game in that same span and just got done hanging a couple crooked numbers on the Reds this week.
Both pitchers are decent, and a totally healthy Max Fried I would actually label "good." But we have no idea what version of Fried we see today as he's missed 2.5 months of the season with a forearm injury. I just figured we would see a 9 or 9.5 total here based on these offenses and their recent outputs, but we are getting 8.5 so I am ready to slam the over as I have this one projected around 11 total runs tonight.
Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Tigers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TB (-148)
TB: Zack Littell | DET: Reese Olson
Now we go in the opposite direction. This game is screaming "under" to me based on the recent performances of these two offenses. While the Rays were the hottest offense in baseball during April and May, they have cooled off considerably. In fact, they have scored just 3.6 runs per game over the last month which is the worst mark in all of baseball. The Tigers are at 3.8 runs over that same span, only a few spots ahead of Tampa.
And the pitching is this game is probably better than most think. Olson has a solid 3.84 SIERA and Zack Littell, a converted reliever, has a SIERA of 3.45. This game has the lowest projected total of any game I have seen in at least a month at just 6.7 runs, yet we are seeing a 9-run total here. When I get disparities like this of over two runs between my projections and the total, I simply have to hit these spots.
Pick: UNDER 9 runs (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Red Sox
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: BOS (-166)
TOR: Alek Manoah | BOS: James Paxton
Lately, I have had some success on run-line bets, so I am going to continue to target them when I see some good odds especially. This pitching matchup screams "major mismatch" to me as Manoah has been terrible this year (5.78 SIERA) and Paxton has been pretty darn good (3.59 SIERA).
Boston's offense has been better than Toronto's, too. The Sox had averaged over 5.3 runs per game in the last month, while Toronto sits at 4.65. This Boston lineup could really give Manoah fits today as he has really struggled against LHH and the Red Sox can roll out at least seven or eight lefties. Paxton will have to face 6-7 righties in Toronto's lineup, too, but he's shown he can have success against them as he shut them out over 7.2 frames back on June 30th, posting seven strikeouts in the process.
When the pitching and hitting both favor the same team, it's a recipe for a run line and I think Boston can create some distance in this game and win it comfortably at home.
Pick: BOS -1.5 (+124) DraftKings Sportsbook
BONUS UNDERDOG BET: D-Backs ML (+110)
Good luck, RotoBallers! Let's hit some bets and make some money tonight! Thanks for reading and following along all season!
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