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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, August 28, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 61-47-3 (+0.51 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -167
CLE: Xzavion Curry| MIL: Kenta Maeda
I’ll start things off out in Minnesota as the Guardians come in after an extra-innings victory in Toronto. While that win hurt us yesterday, we’ll be “running it back” against the Guardians tonight.
The Guardians will send Xzavion Curry (3-2, 3.52 ERA) to the mound. Curry is a bonafide candidate for regression, as seen by his 4.99 xERA and 5.28 xFIP. He’s allowed nine earned runs across his last 13 innings, and projects to a 6.21 SIERA tonight. He draws a bad matchup against the Twins tonight, who project to a .375 wOBA against him.
It’ll be Kenda Maeda taking the ball for the Twins tonight. Maeda (3-7, 4.22 ERA) has had a rough two starts following a really strong stretch by him. He, unlike Curry, is due for some positive regression; bringing in a 3.76 xERA and 3.86 xFIP. He projects to a 3.59 SIERA against a Guardians offense that projects to just a .315 wOBA. While the Twins have a strong pitching and lineup advantage, the bullpen is their weakness. We’ll keep the bullpen out of it and run with the Twins' F5 moneyline, which we can get at -168 on FanDuel.
Pick: Twins F5 Moneyline (-168), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.6 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Rockies
O/U: 12.5 | Moneyline: COL +195
ATL: Bryce Elder | COL: Austin Gomber
I’ll head out to Coors Field tonight as the Braves head into town. I don’t think I’ve ever taken an over this high -- but it’s hard to fade the over with a generational offense in Coors. We can get this at 12.5 for -105 odds on DraftKings, and that’s what we’ll do.
It’ll be Bryce Elder (10-4, 3.39 ERA) on the mound for the Braves tonight. You wouldn’t think a 3.39 ERA would be a smart choice for an over, even in Coors Field. However, he is due for some regression, bringing in a 4.24 xERA and 4.45 xFIP while projecting to a 5.11 SIERA. He’ll take on a Rockies offense that projects to just a .348 wOBA and 39.83% ground ball rate.
The Rockies will hand the ball to Austin Gomber (9-9, 5.48 ERA). It’s surprising that Gomber brings in a 9-9 record, considering how poorly he’s pitched this season. He brings in a 5.51 xERA and 5.05 xFIP and has allowed 11 earned runs in his 11.1 innings pitched. He projects to a 5.59 SIERA today against this vaunted Braves offense that projects to a .380 wOBA and 39.69% hard contact rate.
Both offenses are projecting strongly here, so I’ll take this seemingly ridiculous over and run with it.
Pick: Over 12.5 (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.95 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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