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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm aware that the college football season just kicked off, but I'll be watching baseball today!
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 18-18-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for August 26, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Tigers
O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: HOU -125
HOU: Hunter Brown | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez
We'll open things up with a late afternoon game in Detroit. While the Tigers are playing for little more than player development and morale these days, it's fully crunchtime for the Astros right now. As we approach the final month of the regular season, Houston is barely hanging on to the American League's final Wild Card spot. They've dropped three in a row entering play on Saturday, and I have reason to believe the Astros will bounce back with a decisive win today.
Hunter Brown gets the nod for Houston today. The rookie is coming off possibly the worst start of his young career against the Mariners last weekend, but there's overall positive sentiment surrounding his game. Through 24 outings this season, Brown carries a middling 4.18 xERA and a more impressive 3.34 xFIP. In short, he's pitched better than his surface numbers show, and today looks like a great opportunity to cash in on his due positive regression.
In the grand scheme of 2023, the Tigers have owned one of baseball's weakest offenses. They score an underwhelming four runs per game for the season, including an awful 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. To Detroit's credit, they have improved recently, but that still only amounts to a middling 100 wRC+, .727 OPS, and .313 wOBA against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break. Spencer Torkelson may have finally discovered his swing, but this is far from a juggernaut lineup.
On the flip side, Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for Detroit. He's having the best season of his MLB career, boasting a 3.03 ERA through 19 starts. There is some negative regression in his game, as evidenced by the 3.50 xERA and 3.64 xFIP. Though I'm not going to tell you Rodriguez isn't a good pitcher. He's an above-average hurler with a terrible matchup today.
Houston's offense is finally fully healthy, and the results have been there. They're scoring a blistering 5.6 runs per game in 39 second-half contests. That includes a 147 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the best mark in the league, alongside similarly elite numbers like a .898 OPS and .382 wOBA. I know we don't need a roll call, but let's appreciate that Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman still headline one of baseball's scariest offenses.
In summary, the pitching matchup is closer than the surface numbers tell us, and it becomes even more indiscernible once we factor in Houston's superior 3.71 bullpen ERA. The obvious edge here is with the offenses. Houston is the healthiest they've been all season. They're red-hot, and this game is more important for them. I'm picking the Astros for a decisive bounce-back victory.
Pick: Astros -1.5 Run Line (+136) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA (-238)
KC: Jordan Lyles | SEA: Logan Gilbert
If you haven't been paying attention over the past month or so, you'd assume this was an irrelevant, deadbeat offensive matchup. The 8.5-run game total reflects as much. That said, the Mariners have been one of baseball's best teams since the All-Star break, and even the Royals are playing... not as terribly as they did in the first half. Saturday's matchup features two teams at the apex of their 2023 campaigns, and I anticipate a lot more offense than the run total is willing to admit.
Jordan Lyles takes the mound for Kansas City on Saturday. He's meandering through another awful season, sporting a 5.16 xERA and 5.37 xFIP through 24 starts. That includes some truly terrible numbers, like a .491 xSLG, 10.2% barrel rate, .267 xBA, and .347 xwOBA. Lyles doesn't walk many hitters, but he also doesn't strike anyone out, and the results are bad when opponents are putting the ball in play.
For the season, the Mariners score a decent 4.7 runs per game, but they have really turned up the heat lately. In 39 games since the All-Star break, that figure jumps to 5.6 runs per game. That includes an outstanding 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .800 OPS and .345 wOBA. Julio Rodriguez is possibly the hottest hitter on the planet right now, and others like Teoscar Hernandez and Cal Raleigh have broken free from their first-half slumps.
Seattle will send Logan Gilbert to the bump today. He's a much better pitcher than Jordan Lyles, boasting a 3.73 xERA and 3.73 xFIP through 25 starts this season. Still, Gilbert has shown an ability to get touched up. He's surrendered a concerning 43.2% hard-hit rate, 90.5 mph average exit velocity, 9% barrel rate, and .413 xSLG. I don't expect Kansas City to light up Gilbert, but he rarely escapes an outing unscathed.
The Royals' reputation precedes them. They had debatably the worst offense in the first half, scoring only 3.7 runs per game. Since the All-Star break, Kansas City has performed much more respectably. In that time, they've improved to 4.7 runs per game. That includes a strong 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with a .785 OPS and .335 wOBA. I won't claim that they're an intimidating lineup outside of Bobby Witt Jr., but the Royals are fully capable of putting up a decent total against Gilbert today.
These offenses are too hot not to exceed this run total. The Lyles-Mariners matchup alone makes me a believer that this game will hit double-digits.
Pick: Over 8.5 Run Total (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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