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Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 26, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 53-60-2, -19.36 units
- Sides: 30-33-1, -13.89 units
- Totals: 22-27-1, -7.17 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH -130
CIN: Mike Minor | WSH: Cade Cavalli
We had a rough Sunday, going 0-2 on first-inning under plays. While it wasn't all his fault, Mike Minor was a part of that rough day as he allowed two runs in the bottom of the first in Pittsburgh. We'll run it back this evening as he and the Reds take on the Nationals in DC. Despite Sunday's tough first inning, Minor has allowed a first-inning tally in just one of his six starts on the road, and in two of 12 starts overall.
It should be a fun Friday in the nation's capital, with 24-year-old prospect Cade Cavalli making his Major League debut. I don't have first-inning data for Cavalli, as it wouldn't be relevant anyways due to him making his debut, but that won't hold me back from taking the first-inning under here. Cavalli has been solid in AAA this season, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 3.22 xFIP in 97 innings pitched.
The biggest reason I'm confident in the "NRFI" here is due to neither offense being potent in the first inning. The visiting Reds have scored in just 18% of first innings on the road this season, and in 24% of first innings overall. Conversely, the Nationals have scored in just 24% of first innings at home, and in 27% overall. Both teams have scored just once in their last ten first-innings, and the Reds were shut out last night in Philly. I think the -122 that FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us is too good of value to pass on.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-122) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Cardinals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL +120
ATL: Spencer Strider | STL: Jose Quintana
I have some other plays on my radar today, but this second first-inning under is the one that really caught my eye. The Braves will be sending Spencer Strider to the mound. Strider has been one of my favorite starters to back this season in all aspects, from first-inning unders, to betting on Atlanta, as well as DFS. He's allowed a run in the opening frame in just one of seven starts on the road this season, the only opening frame run he's allowed in all of his 15 starts.
While the Braves will be sending the current NL Rookie of the Year candidate to the hill, the Cardinals will be sending wily veteran Jose Quintana to the mound. Quintana has had a bit of a resurgence this season, pitching to just a 3.45 ERA in 24 starts. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just four of those 24 starts, including just three first-inning runs in his 15 home starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis. He allowed a run in just one of his four starts with St. Louis, his first start with the team. He also held the Braves scoreless in the opening frame back on June 12 in Atlanta.
The Braves have scored in roughly 27% of first innings this season, both on the road and overall. They have been held scoreless in nine of their last ten, however. The Cardinals have been pretty darn good in the first, though, scoring in 43% of home games and in 35% of games overall, including four of their last ten. With that said though, they are facing the better pitcher of the two tonight, and while FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -138, my model has the true line at -174.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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