Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/22/22)

Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/22/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

It is Monday, August 22nd and we have a nine-game MLB slate today with eight games happening at 7:05 pm Eastern or later. The Mets and Yankees open up their series tonight with Max Scherzer and Domingo German facing off in the Bronx. The Cardinals open up a series with the Cubs in Wrigley as well. Lastly, the Brewers and Dodgers are another series of interest with Eric Lauer and Julio Urias pitching in Los Angeles tonight.

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -200
ATL: Jake Odorizzi| PIT: Roansy Contreras

A lot of the win market odds are pretty straightforward. Many of the games today are lopsided and while anything can happen in baseball, it's tough to predict what that "anything" will be on a given day.

That being said, Roansy Contreras is a slightly better pitcher than Jake Odorizzi. Contreras has a 4.43 SIERA, a 21.7% strikeout rate, and a 10.7% walk rate. Odorizzi has a 4.77 SIERA, a 17.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.3% walk rate. Contreras has the better SIERA, strikeout rate, and K-BB%. Contreras does have the edge here despite the pitchers being pretty similar effectiveness-wise.

Offensively, these teams are not close though. Atlanta has the eighth-best wRC+ at 108 this season while Pittsburgh's wRC+ is 29th at 82. Pittsburgh is 28th in OBP and 20th in ISO as well. They are just not a good offense. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 11th in OBP and first in ISO.

With the bullpens, Atlanta has the edge there as well. Pittsburgh has a 4.61 bullpen ERA (fourth-highest) and a 4.43 bullpen xFIP (second-highest). Atlanta has a 3.21 bullpen ERA (fifth-lowest) and a 3.69 bullpen xFIP (sixth-lowest).

If Contreras outpitches Odorizzi, he could face a lack of run support and/or the bullpen blowing the game later on in the game. The only solution to me is the first five innings market. Pittsburgh in the first five innings is the pick and hoping that Pittsburgh can get some bats going against a bad starter on their side.

Pick: Pittsburgh Moneyline F5 (+170), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets @ New York Yankees

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYM -160
NYM: Max Scherzer| NYY: Domingo German

The Subway Series. Again. Mets. Yankees. It's all the national sports media will be talking about baseball-wise, so if you are a fan of one of these teams best of luck in this series.

This is a game that can get some runs scored, despite Max Scherzer being on the mound. First, Domingo German has a 4.52 SIERA and an 11.3% K-BB%. Second, the Mets have a good offense. They are a team with one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, along with the second-highest OBP and the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball this season.

The Mets and the Yankees also have pretty good bullpens. The Mets have the third-lowest bullpen xFIP and the 10th-best bullpen ERA while the Yankees have the second-best bullpen ERA and the 12th-best bullpen xFIP.

The Yankees are in the midst of an offensive struggle. They have scored 61 runs in the last 19 games, including nine of those games they scored two or fewer runs. Facing Scherzer will not help that.

The Mets should score a bunch of runs here. German is not pitching very well and the Mets have a good enough offense to capitalize on it. The 7.5 run total is a low one to include with one bad pitcher on the mound. If the Yankees can get a couple of runs, getting to eight as a game total seems very feasible.

Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs (+100), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 Units

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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