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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/15/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Tommy Bell here pinch-hitting again in the MLB Betting space. I know we're a bit behind on the typical timing of this post, so I'll try to be as concise as possible while still finding a couple of value spots on this full 15-game Tuesday evening slate.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things MLB betting banter.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CIN (-120)
CLE: Logan Allen | CIN: Graham Ashcraft
My initial gut reaction to this line was the OVER in the first five innings. However, after diving deeper into Ashcraft's last three starts for the Reds, I was quite impressed. The 25-year-old has walked just three batters in his last three starts (21 innings), and he allowed just four earned runs in that span. Ashcraft even showed some strikeout upside last time out, and his hard hit rate has been trending positively over the past few weeks. That's enough to make me confident in his matchup against the 21st-ranked team versus RHPs this year in the Guardians.
Meanwhile, Allen has been trending the complete opposite way of late for Cleveland. The young southpaw has walked seven batters in his last three starts (17 innings) while allowing eight earned runs. The 24-year-old's soft contact numbers have dwindled way down, while his fly ball numbers have ticked up. That's a bad combo for Great American Ballpark against a slew of Reds righties who can get the ball up and out in a hurry.
I don't trust the Reds' third-worst bullpen in the league of late (4.73 xFIP on the year), so I'll back them to take a lead to the sixth inning at home in this series opener on Tuesday night. Surely backing the same Ashcraft that I was fading earlier in the year couldn't come back to bite me... Right??
Pick: Reds First 5 Innings ML (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Braves
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-220)
NYY: Luis Severino | ATL: Bryce Elder
Welcome to baseball in the south in August! We have a hot, humid evening in Atlanta with two pitchers struggling to suppress hard contact and one of the best lineups in baseball looking locked in of late. I was eyeing the first five innings here at first glance, but Over 6 runs at -110 felt like a bit too much to ask. Instead, we'll target the first three frames in which we get each team's best hitters for hopefully (at least) two at-bats in the sweltering southern heat.
I could rattle off the recent game logs of both Severino and Elder in this section, but instead I'll just leave you with this: Both starters have been horrible. They've walked too many hitters, allowed too many long balls, and neither one can find an ounce of soft contact these days. The Yankees are still trying to maintain their offensive groove, but they've shown spurts of life recently thanks to the return of Aaron Judge and some improvements from the supporting cast. Meanwhile, it wouldn't surprise me if the Braves dropped a four-spot on Severino in the first inning. They've been THAT unstoppable in recent weeks.
Sure, this is baseball, and nothing is ever a sure thing. But if these two offenses can't find ways to score runs against these two struggling starters, then there's just nothing we can do but chalk it up to a bad night. Line drives right at outfielders is the only way I can see this one falling short. Give me some early runs at Truist Park on Tuesday night.
Pick: Yankees/Braves OVER 3.5 First 3 Innings (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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