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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 8, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 40-46-2, -15.49 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 10-13-1, -2.74 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Braves
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -275
WSH: Erick Fedde | ATL: Charlie Morton
After hitting two NRFIs on Sunday to close out our week and end our July 4th weekend with a bang, we'll be going for two more today. I'll start off in Atlanta, where the Nationals and Braves head up their weekend series. The Nationals will send Erick Fedde (5-5, 4.29 ERA) to the mound and Fedde has been great in the first inning this year. He's 7-1 on the road and 14-2 overall as far as keeping runs off the board in the first, and while the Braves have been a tough out lately, I can expect Fedde to get the job done.
On the other hand, it will be Charlie Morton (4-3, 4.34 ERA) taking the mound for Atlanta. Morton had a tough start to the season, but has bounced back considerably of late, allowing just four runs across 26.2 innings in his last four starts. He's pitched well in the first inning on the road, holding opponents off the scoreboard in five of the seven starts. Since joining the Braves, he's allowed a run in the first inning one time in three starts against Washington. However, those starts all came last season, and the Nationals' lineup isn't quite what it was in 2021.
Neither offense has produced much in the first inning this season, and surprisingly, the Nationals have been the better team in the opening frame. They've scored in the first inning in 14 of 39 games on the road, and 27 of 84 games overall. The Braves take a bit longer to produce, scoring runs in just 12 of 46 home games, and 22 of 83 games overall. My NRFI projection model gives the first inning under a 52.86% chance of cashing, and while that may seem low, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the under at +106 (48.57%). We'll take the value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (+106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ARI -172
COL: Chad Kuhl | ARI: Zac Gallen
I'll go out to Arizona for the second NRFI of the day. The Rockies will send Chad Kuhl (5-5, 3.83 ERA) to the mound. Kuhl started off the season on a tear, and while he's cooled down a bit since, he's still been excellent in the first inning this year. He's allowed a run in just four of his 15 starts overall, and just two of his eight starts away from Coors Field.
Conversely, the Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen (4-2, 3.40 ERA) to the mound. Gallen has proven himself an excellent young pitcher with Arizona, and I project that to continue against the Rockies this evening. He's pitched particularly well in the first inning, allowing a run in just one of his eight home starts, and in just two of his 15 starts overall. This is arguably the best pitching matchup we can ask for between these two teams, and we'll be taking advantage of it.
Much like in the first game I mentioned, neither of these two offenses have been great in the first inning. The Rockies have scored in just 10 of 38 first innings on the road, and in 25 of 82 first innings overall. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have scored in the opening frame of 11 of 44 home games, and 19 of 84 games overall. FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -115, or 53.49% implied odds. My NRFI projection model gives the under a 57.52% chance of hitting, so we're getting good value here as well.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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