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Happy Independence Day, everyone! What better way to celebrate a true American holiday than gambling on some baseball? We have games starting at 11 am today and spanning all day. I will be enjoying some pool time with the family today, so no watching games for me, but that doesn't mean I won't be partaking in the fun. DraftKings has a phenomenal promotion today with a 76% MLB boost to celebrate the holiday, so make sure you use that on my first bet, nudge, nudge.
Attention, fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Astros
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: HOU (-180)
COL: Kyle Freeland | HOU: Brandon Bielak
We start our action today in Houston with a matchup between the Rockies and the Astros. Kyle Freeland will be toeing the rubber for the Rockies, and Brandon Bielak will get the ball for the Astros. These pitchers are in the bottom third of the league regarding SIERA and have been average at best this season. Freeland has a 5.14 SIERA, 15.5% K, 7.5% BB and a .277 BAA. Bielak has a 4.81 SIERA, 17.6% K, 8.6% BB and a .304 BAA.
The advantage here for the Astros comes on the offensive side of the ball, which is a significant edge. The Astros are one of the league's best offenses against left-hand pitching. They own a 108 wRC+, .325 wOBA, .429 SLG, and a 33.0% hard hit. Conversely, the Rockies against right-hand pitching are a bottom-five team in baseball. They own an 87 wRC+, .323 wOBA, .411 SLG, and a 33.6% hard hit.
The Astros are scoring hot at the moment. They are 6-4 over their last ten and have won two in a row. They are playing their best baseball and are only three games back in the AL West to the Rangers. The offense is on fire. In June, they owned a 121 wRC+ against left-hand pitching. I will use the 76% profit boost on DraftKings on the Astros moneyline and max-betting it.
Pick: Astros moneyline (-103) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Marlins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIA (-170)
STL: Adam Wainwright | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
I want to start by saying, wow, has Adam Wainwright been a disappointment this season? He enters today's start with a 5.81 SIERA, 10.7% K%, 7.3% BB%, and a ridiculous .355 BAA. Over the last month, he's even been worst. He has a 6.25 SIERA, 8.2% K%, 8.2% BB%, and a .396 BAA. Yes, a .396 BAA. Luis Arraez to get a hit should be -1000.
Luzardo, on the other hand, has been tremendous. He has a 3.46 SIERA, 28.4% K%, 6.1% BB%, and a .239 BAA. Over the last month, he has had a 2.77 SIERA, 31.3% K%, 3.7% BB%, and a .173 BAA. That is ace-level stuff right there. He should be an all-star.
Adam Wainwright has a .491 wOBA and a .400 BAA against left-hand hitters this season. Luis Arraez is hitting .388 against right-hand pitching this season. I am fully confident in him getting a hit today. I love pairing that with the Marlins moneyline in a single game parlay to get the odds from -170 to -120. You can also take the Marlins -1.5 at +120 if you would instead do that.
Pick: Luis Arraez to get a hit + Marlins moneyline -120 DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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