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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, July 3, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 43-31-2 (+3.68 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Twins
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN -240
KC: Austin Cox | MIN: Joe Ryan
I'll start off the new week with a matchup between the Royals and Twins as they start off an early-week series.
The visiting Royals will send Austin Cox (0-1, 2.25 ERA) to the mound. Cox has made just one start this season and he struggled, allowing four runs in 3.2 innings. Ironically, these were the only four runs Cox has allowed across all of his 16.2 innings this season. He brings in a 4.71 xERA and 4.50 xFIP, and projects to a 4.50 SIERA against a Twins lineup that does tend to struggle a bit against lefties but projects up today.
The Twins will send their ace Joe Ryan (8-5, 3.44 ERA) to the mound. Ryan has been good, not great in 2023, and brings in a 2.73 xERA and 3.69 xFIP. He projects to a 3.89 SIERA against a Royals offense that's been pretty awful against righties this season. They rank 29th in wOBA (.287) and 30th in wRC+ (78), and project to a .285 wOBA against Ryan's pitch types today.
The Twins are, as previously mentioned, not so great against lefties. I still think they have enough of an advantage here to grab them on the F5 run line, which we can get at -160 on FanDuel. With that said, the under is potentially in play here. This F5 line is a bit juiced, but I'm confident enough in the Twins to bounce back tonight after an ugly loss in Baltimore yesterday.
Pick: Twins F5 -0.5 (-160), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.6 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Guardians
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CLE +138
ATL: Bryce Elder | CLE: Gavin Williams
I'll wrap things up out in Cleveland, as the scorching hot Braves come into town. We've been hot on the Braves, so why stop now, right?
The Guardians will be sending rookie Gavin Williams (0-0, 2.84 ERA) to the mound. Williams has been good this season, as shown by his ERA and xERA (2.71). However, he brings in a 4.77 xFIP and projects to a 4.63 SIERA against this fantastic Braves offense today.
Speaking of, the Braves offense has been on quite the heater, tagging reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara for four runs in a total six-run effort to close out the Marlins series on Sunday. They rank first in wOBA (.351) and second in wRC+ (118) against right-handers in 2023, and I'm expecting them to give the rookie a wake-up call today.
I'll be grabbing the Braves team total here, which currently sits at o5 (+100) on FanDuel. They've either pushed or hit this number in eight of their last 10 games.
Pick: Braves TT o5 (+100), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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