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Happy Sunday and happy July 4th, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 3, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 38-46-2, -16.79 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 8-13-1, -4.04 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET -136
KC: Brady Singer | DET: Tarik Skubal
A tough, unlucky day yesterday, going 0-2 on the plays in the article but fortunately hitting out NRFI in the Orioles-Twins game. I'll be taking two NRFIs today, starting with the Royals and Tigers game out in Detroit. It'll be a fun pitching matchup with two quality young arms as Brady Singer (3-3, 4.33 ERA) takes on Tarik Skubal (5-6, 3.75 ERA).
Brady Singer has been very good in the first inning of games this season, holding opposing offenses scoreless in two of three road starts, and seven of eight starts overall. He projects well today, grading out to a 41.16 rating. On the other hand, Tarik Skubal has held opponents scoreless in five of seven home starts, and 11 of 15 starts overall. He grades out even better than Singer, with a 43.79 rating.
Neither offense has produced in the first inning often this season, with the Royals scoring in the first just 28% of the time on the road and just 27% overall. The Tigers score in the first just 30% of the time at home and 20% of the time overall. Given these numbers, my model projects the NRFI a 63.39% chance of winning. FanDuel is offering us -156, or 60.94% implied odds. We're getting good value here, and I'm a huge fan of NRFIs on getaway days.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SF -116
CWS: Lucas Giolito | SF: John Brebbia
I'll go out to The Bay for the second NRFI of the day. The White Sox will be sending Lucas Giolito (4-4, 5.19 ERA) to the mound. Giolito hasn't been very trustworthy this season, and grades out to just a 23.62 rating. However, he's been excellent at keeping offenses off the board in the opening frame, particularly on the road, coming into this one allowing a run in just one of eight starts.
On the other hand, the Giants will be sending an opener to the mound in the form of John Brebbia. Brebbia had opened one game this season, a month ago to the day against the Marlins. He kept Miami off the board, surrendering one hit while allowing one run. As odd as it sounds, I'm more confident with Brebbia keeping the White Sox off the board than would be if it was the Marlins. The White Sox have been horrid this season against right-handed pitching, and haven't scored in the first inning in any of their last ten games.
Beyond just their last ten games, the White Sox have scored in the first inning in just 26% of their road games and 23% in all of the games while the Giants have tallied a first-inning run in 23% of home games and 24% of games overall. Given the data, my model gives the first inning under 68.44% implied odds, much better than FanDuel's 60% implied odds (-150). I'll run with the value here and hope the getaway day isn't a trend-breaker.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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