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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, July 24, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 49-35-3 (+4.93 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Padres
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SD -250
PIT: Quinn Priester | SD: Yu Darvish
We had a rough day yesterday, dropping both of our plays. This opens up the door for a run-back play though, which we'll be taking here as we look back at the Padres with the Pirates coming into town.
The Pirates will send rookie Quinn Priester (0-1, 11.81 ERA) to the mound. Priester got roughed up in his debut, allowing seven earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched against the Guardians. He'll take on a Padres lineup that's tied for 17th in wOBA (.316) and 14th in wRC+ (101). They project to a .345 wOBA against Priester's pitch types and a .343 wOBA overall.
The Padres will send Yu Darvish (7-6, 4.36 ERA) to the mound. Darvish has been unlucky this season, bringing in a 3.56 ERA and 3.77 xFIP into this one. He also projects to a 3.66 SIERA today against a struggling Pirates lineup that projects to just a .297 wOBA against his pitch types.
The Padres have the offensive advantage and the pitching advantage here. The Pirates actually had to travel less than the Padres did yesterday, but I think the Padres will be happy to be back at home.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-120), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE -196
KC: Ryan Yarbrough | CLE: Logan Allen
I'll wrap things up out in Cleveland, as the Royals and Guardians open up an early-week set.
The Royals will be sending southpaw and former Tampa Bay Ray Ryan Yarbrough to the mound. Yarbrough (2-5, 5.21 ERA) has certainly been an interesting case this season, bringing in a 5.44 ERA and 4.39 xFIP. Yarbrough has been solid lately but did allow three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last Wednesday. Cleveland ranks poorly against lefties in general, but projects to a .331 wOBA against Yarbrough's pitch types today.
Conversely, it'll be Logan Allen taking the ball for the Guardians. Allen (4-2, 3.21 ERA) is due for some regression, generally speaking, but projects to just a 3.45 SIERA against a Royals lineup that doesn't rate too well against lefties. They project to just a .285 wOBA against Allen's pitch types.
We'll keep things within the first five innings here, as I want this to be a "starter vs. starter" play -- given that Logan Allen hasn't allowed a run in his last 12.2 innings. With that, we'll deal with a bit of juice as we grab the Guardians' F5 moneyline at -184 on FanDuel.
Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-184), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.54 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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