RADIO
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 23, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 49-33-3 (+6.93 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +194
SD: Joe Musgrove | DET: Alex Faedo
I'll start things off in the early bird game, where the Padres and Tigers lock up in the final game of their weekend series.
The visiting Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound. Musgrove (9-2, 3.16 ERA) has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing Padres season. He's been great and brings in a 3.01 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, and a projected 3.13 SIERA into this matchup. He'll take on a Tigers offense that ranks 28th in both wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (83). Musgrove has allowed just seven earned runs in his last six starts (38 innings).
The Tigers will send Alex Faedo (1-4, 6.98 ERA) to the mound. Faedo has certainly been a victim of some bad luck this season, as he brings in a 3.96 ERA and 4.13 xFIP as well as projecting to a 4.98 SIERA today. While positive regression is imminent, I don't think it will be enough against Musgrove and the Padres today. Faedo has allowed 13 earned runs over his last two starts (eight IP). The Padres project to a .346 wOBA against his pitch types, and I think they get to him early and often today.
While I don't think the Padres will lose this game, I do think things trend in the Tigers' direction as the game goes on, considering the Padres have to travel back to San Diego tonight. However, I'll grab their first five run line, which we can get at -135 on FanDuel.
Pick: Padres F5 -0.5 (-135), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.02 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Rays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TB -134
BAL: Tyler Wells | TB: Taj Bradley
I'll head down to Tampa for my second play of the afternoon as the Rays and Orioles close the book on their weekend series.
Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA) will take the ball for Baltimore. Wells has been a bit lucky this season, bringing a 3.85 ERA and 4.42 xFIP into this one. I don't want to take anything away from him, as he has been good, but did just allow five earned runs in two innings last time out against the Dodgers. He'll take on a Rays offense that has somewhat tapered off but still ranks fourth in the majors in wOBA (.336) and first in wRC+ (120).
It'll be Taj Bradley taking the ball for the Rays. Bradley (5-6, 4.02 ERA), contrary to Wells, has been unlucky this season, as shown by his 4.03 xERA and 3.30 xFIP. He brings a projected 3.71 SIERA into this matchup against Baltimore, who's been solid against righties in 2023.
They rank 15th in wOBA (.318) and 13th in wRC+ (102), but project to just a .296 wOBA against Bradley's pitch types. Without a doubt, it's been an up-and-down type of season for Bradley. He did toss six innings of three-hit ball while allowing just one earned run against the Orioles back in June.
Both of these squads bring in plus-plus bullpens, but I think Baltimore's bullpen benefits greatly when they have a lead in the late innings. I think the Rays get the lead early and hold onto it throughout the duration of the game, so I'll grab their moneyline at -134 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.74 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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