Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/21/23)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.

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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 21, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks

2023 Regular Season: 47-33-3 (+5.35 units)

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Red Sox

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -116
NYM: Kodai Senga | BOS: James Paxton

I'll start the weekend off in Boston, as the Mets and Red Sox clash for a weekend series. We'll be looking at a pair of first five plays today, so let's get right after it.

The Mets will send Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.20 ERA) to the mound in this one. Senga is due for some regression, given his 3.70 xERA and 3.70 xFIP. He'll take on a tough Red Sox lineup that ranks in the top 10 in both wOBA (.329) and wRC+ (104) against right-handed pitching.

My model doesn't exactly believe that period of regression will start tonight, though. Senga has allowed just six earned runs across his last six starts (24.1 IP), and my model projects him to a 3.01 SIERA today against a Red Sox lineup that projects to just a .287 wOBA against his pitch types.

Conversely, the Red Sox will send James Paxton (5-2, 3.51 ERA) to the mound. Paxton has had quite the resurgence in 2023, and brings in a 3.32 xERA and 3.59 xFIP into this one. While he takes on a Mets offense that struggles against lefties (.306 wOBA, 96 wRC+), my model has him getting roughed up for the second consecutive start. He projects to a 4.43 SIERA against a Mets lineup that projects to a massive .360 wOBA against his pitch types.

I'll absolutely be fading the Mets bullpen tonight, as I will on most nights, and grab the first five money line. We can get them as underdogs on FanDuel at -102.

Pick: Mets F5 Money Line (-102), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.02 units to win 1 unit.

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Angels

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAA -190
PIT: Johan Oviedo | LAA: Shohei Ohtani

I'll wrap things up by running back the Angels in the first five innings as I did on Monday night against the Yankees, as the Pirates come into town for a weekend set.

The Pirates will send Johan Oviedo (3-10, 4.53 ERA) to the mound. Oviedo had a good start against the Giants last time out, which was a good sight for Pirates fans after allowing 13 earned runs in his two starts prior (11.2 IP). He brings in a 4.53 xERA and 4.57 xFIP, as well as a projected 4.23 SIERA for tonight's game. He'll take on the Angels who project to a .341 wOBA against his pitch types, and have spent all of 2023 crushing right-handed pitching.

The Angels will send Shohei Ohtani (7-5, 3.28 ERA) to the mound for what could possibly (but probably not, in my opinion) be his last start in an Angels uniform. He brings a 3.81 xERA and 3.53 xFIP into this one and is looking for a bounce-back start after back-to-back poor outings. He'll look to take advantage of a Pirates lineup that ranks 26th in both wOBA (.300) and wRC+ (86) against righties, and project to a .312 wOBA against his pitch types. Shohei projects to a 3.54 SIERA today.

While the Angels' bullpen hasn't necessarily been brutal in 2023, I'll still look to avoid them here as the have a slight projected disadvantage relative to Pittsburgh's. I'll grab the F5 -0.5 on FanDuel, or "First Five Innings Result", and drink the juice at -170. I think the juice is worth the squeeze here, but only for one unit.

Pick: Angels F5 -0.5 (-170), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.58 units.

Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!

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