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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 2, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 42-30-2 (+4,11 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -102
MIN: Sonny Gray | BAL: Cole Irvin
I'll start things off out in Baltimore, where the Twins and Orioles will wrap up their weekend series. The Twins have taken the first two in this one, but I'll look for Baltimore to hang in there today.
The visiting Twins will send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound today. We went after Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) on Monday against the Braves, and we'll do so again today – just in a different capacity. He projects to a 4.10 SIERA against the Orioles this morning, who projects to a .315 wOBA against his pitch types and a .316 weighted wOBA overall today.
The Orioles will send Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18 ERA) to the mound. On the surface, this looks like a massive pitching disadvantage for Baltimore. Irvin's 8.04 xERA and 4.59 xFIP don't give a very favorable outlook on the regression standpoint either, but the southpaw actually projects to a better SIERA than Gray here at 4.01. He'll take on a Twins offense that projects to a .311 wOBA against Irvin's pitch types but a .278 weighted wOBA here.
While Baltimore most likely has the best back-end bullpen in baseball, I'll stick to just a first-five play here. Both teams play tomorrow, but Baltimore is just heading up to New York while the Twins will head back to Minnesota, losing an hour in the process. We'll grab the first-five run line here, which we can get at -148 on FanDuel.
Pick: Orioles F5 +0.5 (-148), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.48 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -200
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | ATL: Spencer Strider
I'll finish things up down south in Atlanta, and the Marlins and Braves will wrap up their series.
The visiting Marlins will send reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to the mound. Alcantara (3-6, 4.82 ERA) has certainly taken a step back this season but does appear to be a bit unlucky, given his 4.16 xERA and 4.17 xFIP. He projects to a 3.98 SIERA today against a scorching hot Braves offense that projects to a .345 wOBA against Alcantara's pitch types and a .344 weighted wOBA overall.
The Braves will send Spencer Strider to the mound. Strider (9-2, 3.73 ERA) has been pitching at a pretty high level all season, though he has had some blips on the radar. However, he does project for some positive regression; with a 3.31 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and projecting to a 2.57 SIERA today. He'll take on a Marlins offense that projects to a .304 wOBA against Strider's pitch types and a .323 weighted wOBA today.
I'll hit the same line I had on Monday, with Braves -1.5, at the exact same price (+105). While the Braves will head up to Cleveland tomorrow, the Marlins head back down to Miami for a homestand prior to the all-star break. This is normally a bad indicator, and something I would avoid, but the Braves are just so difficult to fade right now. On top of that, the Marlins needed 8.2 innings out of their bullpen on Saturday. I'll back the Braves here.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+105), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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