RADIO
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 16, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 45-32-3 (+4.68 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Royals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: KC +194
TB: Zach Eflin | KC: Brady Singer
We managed to go 1-0 with a push last Friday, and now we'll look to close out our weekend with a sweep.
I'll start in Kansas City, where I'll be looking at the Rays' first five run line. The Rays will be sending Zach Eflin (10-4, 3.25 ERA) to the mound here. Eflin was excellent in the first half of the season -- and could still get better. He brings in a 2.97 ERA and 3.05 xFIP, according to Fangraphs. He projects to a 3.19 SIERA in today's matchup.
The Royals will send Brady Singer to the mound today. Singer (5-8, 5.80 ERA) has been an interesting case this season. He brings in a 5.75 ERA but a 4.48 xFIP. He's had some poor BABIP luck, clearly, but I don't think that makes a huge difference today. He projects to a 4.82 SIERA today and takes on one of the top offenses in the league in this one.
That top Rays offense ranks third in wOBA (.338) and first in wRC+ (121) against right-handed pitchers while projecting to a .341 wOBA against Singer's pitch types today. Conversely, the Royals rank dead last in both wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (77). There's a massive advantage towards Tampa here, and I'll look to grab their first five run line as they look to complete the sweep in Kansas City.
Pick: Rays F5 -0.5 (-144), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.69 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Angels
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAA +132
HOU: Cristian Javier | LAA: Tyler Anderson
I'll wrap things up out in Anaheim as we dig into the Sunday Night Baseball game. While I actually like the over in this game as well, I'll only be taking one bet in this game for now -- the Astros' moneyline.
The Astros will send Cristian Javier (7-1, 4.34 ERA) to the mound. He brings in a 4.47 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, and 4.38 projected SIERA. The Angels' offense is solid, ranking fifth in wOBA (.334) and wRC+ (112). They project to a .334 weighted wOBA today and a .362 wOBA against Javier's pitch types.
While those optics don't look great for Javier, Angels starter Tyler Anderson's optics are even worse. He brings a 5.25 ERA into this one despite his solid 4-2 record. He's also due for some regression, as indicated by his 4.68 xERA and 5.49 xFIP. He's projecting to a 4.43 SIERA against an Astros lineup that ranks 14th in wOBA (.328) and 10th in wRC+ (110). They have a projected .355 weighted wOBA today as well as a .403 wOBA against Anderson's pitch types.
The Astros have a minor advantage over the Angels here, and I wouldn't recommend taking the F5 moneyline here. I will endorse the full-game moneyline though, especially considering the Astros have a massive advantage once the game gets to the bullpens. They bring in a projected 3.50 SIERA while the Angels' bullpen projects to a 5.09 SIERA. We'll take the Astros' moneyline at -150 on DraftKings.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-150), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.67 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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