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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 15, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 42-50-2, -17.85 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 12-17-1, -5.1 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -166
PHI: Kyle Gibson | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
We were fortunate enough to pick up some of the slack on Sunday with two NRFI plays, and fortunately, I have two more on the board for today. I'll start out in Miami, where Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.53 ERA) will take the ball for the Phightins this evening. While Kyle Gibson's overall numbers don't look great to the eye, he's done one thing well this year – shutting down opposing offenses in the opening frame. He's done so in seven of eight starts on the road and in 14 of 17 starts overall. He's held the Marlins scoreless in the first in each of his two starts against them this season.
Who better to start our weekend off with than Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73 ERA). We backed Sandy in a NRFI play on Sunday against the Mets, and he delivered. That start was his 14th shutout first-inning in 18 starts (77.8%). He hasn't had the same first-inning success at home as he has on the road, but has held opponents scoreless in six of nine (66.7%) starts in Loan Depot. One of those first-inning runs came against the Phillies way back on April 14. However, that came via a Bryce Harper sac fly, and obviously, Harper won't be in the lineup tonight. Not to mention that Sandy has certainly found his groove since then.
The Phillies have been held scoreless in the first inning of 81.8% of road games on the year, 74.16% of games overall, and in seven of their last ten. Meanwhile, the Marlins have been held scoreless in the first in 77.5% of home games and 81.6% of games overall, including nine of their last ten. My model gives the first inning under a 61.89% chance of hitting, while Vegas is giving us an even -150 (60%). While the value isn't substantial, I have no trouble backing these two starters given the circumstances.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Angels
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAA +180
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | LAA: Patrick Sandoval
I'll head out (quite literally) to the West Coast as the Dodgers and Angels fire up a series before all the All-Star Break activities commence in the City of Angels. I'll be headed out that way myself tomorrow. The visiting Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.40 ERA) to the mound, who's been awesome in the first inning this year. He's held opponents scoreless in the first in 5 of 6 (83.3%) starts on the road and in 10 of 11 (90.9%) overall. He hasn't faced the Angels since 2021, where he was a perfect 1-0 in regards to scoreless first innings.
On the opposite side, Patrick Sandoval (3-4, 2.95 ERA) will take the ball for the struggling Halos. Sandoval has also been great in the first inning, keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the opening frame in six of seven starts at home and in 11 of 14 starts overall. He hasn't faced the Dodgers yet in 2022 and did surrender a first-inning run in his one start against them in 2021. It's worth noting, though, that a big part of the production of that run was due to the likes of Corey Seager and Albert Pujols, whom neither plays in LA any longer.
While the pitchers here have been great in the opening frame, their offenses have been pretty good too. The Dodgers have been held scoreless in just 63.6% of first innings on the road this year and in 64.4% overall, but have scored in just three of their last ten opening frames. On the other hand, the Angels have been held scoreless in just 65.2% of home games, but have been kept off the board in 70.8% of games overall and nine of their last ten. My model gives the first inning under a 58.11% chance of hitting, and since these offenses have been relatively consistent in the first inning this season, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us -111 (52.6%) for the under. Given the Dodgers' struggles against left-handed pitching and the Angels' recent overall struggles, I'm more than happy to take the value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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