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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 10, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 40-50-2, -19.49 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 10-17-1, -6.74 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL +100
LAA: Jose Suarez | BAL: Austin Voth
We had some more tough luck yesterday, with a two-out home run ruining our NRFI play and the Braves allowing two runs deep into the game to crush the run line. Nevertheless, we all know Sundays are for NRFIs, and I have two I just can't pass up today. The first one will be in Baltimore, where the Angels will send southpaw Jose Suarez to the mound. Suarez has allowed a first-inning tally in just one of his seven starts. While that did come on the road, he was perfect in the first in his three other road starts.
Meanwhile, the Orioles will send opener Austin Voth to the mound for their Sunday matinee. Voth has been excellent in the first inning this season, at least in terms of run prevention. He's a perfect 2-0 at home and 4-0 overall. While the top of the Angels order is certainly daunting, they've run into a bit of a cold streak, scoring a first-inning run in just two of their last 10 games.
Beyond their last 10 games, though, the Angels have scored in just 10 of 41 games on the road, and 25 of 85 games overall. The Orioles on the other hand haven't scored in the first inning in any of their last 10 games, despite winning seven straight. They've scored in the first in just six of 40 home games, and 14 of 85 games overall. My model projects the first inning under a 71.21% chance of hitting, while FanDuel Sportsbook has it at -108 (51.92%). We're getting incredible value here, and absolutely have to take it.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-108) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Mets
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYM -13o
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | NYM: Taijuan Walker
I'll head up to the Big Apple for my second NRFI of the day. We should see quite the pitcher's duel this afternoon between these two starters. The Marlins will be sending arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now, Sandy Alcantara, to the mound. It should be no surprise to anyone that Sandy's been great in the first inning this season, allowing a first-inning run in just one of seven road starts, and four of 17 starts overall.
Taijuan Walker will take the ball for the Mets today, who's also been great for the Mets this season. He carries a 2.76 ERA through his last three games and has historically pitched well against the Marlins. He also hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his five home starts, and in just four of 14 starts overall.
The Marlins have scored a run in the first in just seven of 45 road games on the year, and in just 16 of 82 games overall. Conversely, the Mets have scored in 31 of 84 games overall. They have been quite good in the first inning at home though, scoring in 21 of 41 first innings at Citi Field. However, if there's one guy I can trust to keep them off the board early, it's Sandy. My model gives the under here a 68.31% chance of hitting, compared to FanDuel's line of -140 (58.33%). Even with the line a bit juiced, we're still getting great value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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