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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/1/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Welcome to the month of July, RotoBallers, and Happy Canada Day to those who celebrate! We got off to an amazing start on Friday afternoon when the Cubbies drubbed Cal Quantrill and the Guardians, cashing our Cubs -1 bet with ease. Unfortunately, the Yankees/Cardinals game was postponed just before Griffin Canning turned into Griffin "Gas Can" to end our night at 1-1, losing some cash on the juice. That's what we get for calling the Angels' starter consistent and putting down the Diamondbacks' offense. All we can do is learn from it, laugh it off, and move on to a new slate!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, July 1, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. Let's have a great Saturday to start the month of July off right!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Blue Jays
O/U: 9 | ML: TOR -155
BOS: Kutter Crawford | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi
The Red Sox blanked the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre on Friday night behind a stellar start from James Paxton. This time around, it'll be the Jays who throw a southpaw in Yusei Kikuchi, as he looks to continue a torrid stretch of pitching. The 32-year-old hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts, and he's struck out 37 batters in that 32.2-inning span.
The Sox are a different offense against lefty-pitchers, as they typically move speed/power youngster Jarren Duran to the bench. We see the negative platoon side of Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo at the top of their batting order.
Meanwhile, Boston will go with Kutter Crawford on the bump. While he's been fine as of late, the lack of strikeouts and underlying statistics makes me think he's due for some negative regression any day now. Do you know who else is due for some regression? This Blue Jays offense!
They have way too many big-name bats to be sitting at 12th in runs scored halfway through the year. A big game is coming, and what better time than on Canada Day in Toronto? One extra kicker is that Boston should be without one of their best relievers in Chris Martin, while Toronto's 'pen is fully ready for this one. I like using the same approach we used in Chicago on Friday to bring down the juice and start the day off with cash north of the border!
Pick: Blue Jays -1 (-120), DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | ML: BAL -140
MIN: Bailey Ober | BAL: Kyle Bradish
This is a play I've been riding for most of the season. When the Orioles play at home (or in any other hitter-friendly park for that matter), they face a right-handed starter, and I can trust the opposing offense to score a few runs of their own. I've been living on the OVER in Baltimore games listed below 9.5 runs.
Now, in this particular case, we have two righty starters that have been fairly solid, so it does create some pause. But I don't expect either one to finish the season as an ace-caliber arm, so there will be some bumps along the way. Why not in the humid bandbox that is Camden Yards on a Saturday afternoon?
The Twins should pull their own weight in this one. Their offense appears to be waking up, having scored eight runs against right-hander Dean Kremer on Friday. That being said, both bullpens have impressed me so far this season. We have two of the best closers in the game on full rest in this one, so I'll stick with the first five innings number and look for some fireworks early from the top half of these lineups!
Pick: First Five Innings OVER 4.5 (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Athletics
O/U: 9 | ML: CHW -200
CHW: Dylan Cease | OAK: Kyle Muller
The White Sox had been red hot heading into Friday's matchup in Oakland, having scored 20 runs over two games in Anaheim. Chicago scored one early but then fell asleep at the wheel in a 7-4 loss to the A's. Oakland is not a team that wins back-to-back games often, and that's due in large part to their putrid bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP by a large margin.
The A's will trot out Kyle Muller on Saturday afternoon. While the stats haven't backed it up as much as we'd like yet this season, one glance at a healthy White Sox lineup should tell you that this team has loads of potential against soft-throwing lefties who struggle to miss bats. That's exactly what Muller was before getting sent down to Triple-A at the end of May, and I don't think this recall will show us a reinvented arm.
Shop around for any plays you can find on the White Sox offense to bounce back on Saturday. Muller and the worst-ranked bullpen in a day game is medicine to fix whatever is ailing this Chicago offense this season. I'm settling on a FanDuel play with a little juice but a very fair number considering I think the White Sox can score five runs in the first five innings in this one.
If you want to pick on what has been a shaky Chicago bullpen while we're at it, that's fine. But Dylan Cease on the bump for the White Sox could lead to something like a 7-1 victory, killing the full game Over.
Pick: White Sox Team Total OVER Five Runs (-125), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers!
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