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Happy Friday and happy July, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 1, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 36-44-1, -16.43 units
- Sides: 28-31, -13.09 units
- Totals: 7-13-1, -5.04 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Reds
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN +210
ATL: Max Fried | CIN: Mike Minor
I'll be heading out to Cincinnati for our first play of the day. Both of these teams got quite a shellacking yesterday, with the Braves falling to the Phillies 14-4 while the Reds fell to the Cubs 15-7. Fortunately for the Braves, they'll be sending their ace Max Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA) to the mound, while the Reds send Mike Minor (1-4, 7.71 ERA) to the mound. It'll be a battle of the southpaws in this one, and I'll be looking to back Fried and the Braves in the first five innings.
Max Fried has been a bonafide ace this season. He's regressed somewhat from his season totals in his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA. However, he keeps a 2.84 xFIP, while allowing just 27.4% hard contact. Minor on the other hand has been slightly better in his last three starts. While that's not saying much, as he comes into this one 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA in his last three. Simply put, the Braves have the better starter on the mound and the better lineup against left-handed pitching. I grade the Braves lineup to a 43.93 rating while I grade Cincy just a 27.35 rating.
While I'll be looking at the first five innings here, it's worth noting that the Braves have won each of Max Fried's last four starts against teams with a losing record. Conversely, the Reds have lost four straight against southpaws, as well as eight straight road games. My model gives the Braves a 65.52% chance of winning (full-game projection), by a final score of 6.06-4.39. I'll be backing the Braves to bounce back from Thursday's blowout loss and take advantage of a struggling Mike Minor. We'll reduce the juice by taking them -0.5.
Pick: Braves -0.5 (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -146
CWS: Lance Lynn | SF: Alex Cobb
I'll go out to The Bay for the second play of the night. Whereas in the first pick we have a pair of southpaws, in the second pick we have a couple of unlucky veterans. The visiting White Sox will send Lance Lynn (1-1, 6.19 ERA) to the mound to take on the Giants and Alex Cobb (3-3, 5.48 ERA). I'll be backing Cobb and the Giants here, particularly in the first five innings. While Cobb has been unlucky (2.70 xFIP relative to his 5.48 ERA), today could be the day he finally shows some positive regression against a White Sox offense that ranks towards the bottom of the Majors in OPS, wRC+, and wOBA against right-handed pitching.
On the other hand, Lance Lynn has been somewhat of a curious case. Granted he's only made three starts on the season, so we're dealing with a small sample. He has a 3.32 xFIP, a strong indicator for positive regression given his 6.19 ERA, but has allowed 41.2% hard contact in those three starts. He's been forcing opposing offenses to hit the ball on the ground though, at a 48% rate to be exact, but I have no trouble backing the Giants' offense who rank near the top ten in OPS, wRC+, and wOBA against righties. They project to just a 40.99% ground ball rate today, as well as a .508 wOBA and 31.3% hard contact rate.
For what it's worth, my model gives the Giants a 63.03% chance of winning, by a final score of 4.61-3.76. This is plenty good enough for me to take their full game money line, but I'll be opting for their first five money line instead. At this time a year ago, the Giants bullpen was a strength, aiding them in late-inning comebacks and dramatic victories. This year, not so much. Their 4.10 xFIP and 19.9% strikeout rate rank towards the bottom of the league, and while the White Sox bullpen isn't much better, I'd prefer to keep this bet Cobb versus Lynn.
Pick: Giants F5 Money Line (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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