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Good morning, RotoBallers. I'm pretty pumped to make some picks today and see if I can keep my momentum going this week. I'm 5-0 on my last five straight bets as I had three correct picks on Monday and two more last night. Yesterday, I hit both teams as slight underdogs at plus odds, too. If you wondering, it was Boston (who came back late and had me sweating) and the Mariners (who won 4-1 behind another strong start from Logan Gilbert).
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As always, I have some thoughts as to where we should place our money today when it comes to betting on these games. In this article, I'll give you my favorite moneylines, game totals, team totals, run lines, F5s -- you name it! I have a few I really like here today, so let's take a look, shall we?
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Seattle @ San Diego
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SDP -120
SEA: George Kirby | SDP: Michael Wacha
One of the first games that caught my eye this morning when looking through the Vegas lines was this one. And I promise you that I am not simply betting on the Mariners today because they won for me last night, but maybe just a little -- I mean, we are all human beings here, not robots, right?
I see another pitching matchup that favors Seattle here. As good as Michael Wacha has been over the last month, I simply don't buy him as a guy who will keep pitching at that level. We saw him start to slip a bit in his last outing when he walked five Cubs and couldn't finish the fifth inning.
Meanwhile, George Kirby is in peak form right now as he's coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Yankees in which he struck out seven. He's known as the best control pitcher in baseball with his 2% walk rate. While he hasn't generated a ton of swinging strikes, he's used that control to paint corners with all his pitches and get guys looking or to induce weak contact.
The Padres have the big names on offense, but Seattle scores a full half-run more per game as San Diego continues to struggle to produce runs. My projections have this one flipped and I think Seattle should be a -120 or -130 favorite instead of the other way around. I am rolling with the King of Control -- Mr. Kirby -- and the road dog Mariners to get it done for us again today.
Pick: SEA ML (+100, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Francisco @ Colorado
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: SFG -200
SFG: Logan Webb | COL: Connor Seabold
The Giants pummeled the Rockies last night 10-4 and they did it using their bullpen and their worst starter (Sean Manaea). The bad news for Colorado is that the Giants will roll out their ace today -- Logan Webb. I am a huge fan of Webb and have been for a few years. I'm happy to see he's finally getting some recognition as a top-15 starting pitcher in all of baseball.
Webb does a little of everything right. He doesn't walk guys, has a massive ground ball rate, and has improved on his strikeout rate this season as he's all the way up to 26.5%. I wrote about him and a few other "unicorns" who are the pitchers I am enamored with in baseball -- guys who can dominate with strikeouts and ground balls.
Well, keeping it on the ground in Coors is a good thing as the spacious outfield allows many extra-base hits and the altitude allows loud outs to turn into home runs. I'm going to trust that Webb can get it done on the road here against a Rockies team that continues to be a bottom-tier offense in baseball.
Connor Seabold pitched better in his last outing, but he's still a young pitcher with a SIERA approaching 5.0 and this Giants offense will likely make him pay. I expect San Fran to cover the run line here pretty easily with another big win tonight.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (-130, DK Sportsbook)
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