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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 5, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 30-32-1, -8.77 units
- Sides: 23-21, -6.78 units
- Totals: 6-11-1, -3.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Pirates
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PIT +120
ARI: Zac Gallen | PIT: Zach Thompson
I'll head out to Pittsburgh for our first play of the day as the Diamondbacks and Pirates close out their series. Today's game will decide the series, with Pittsburgh sneaking away with a 2-1 victory after Arizona took game one on Friday. Despite yesterday's low-scoring game, it's hard to trust either of these teams' bullpens. With that said, I'll be backing Zac Gallen (4-0, 2.32 ERA) and the Diamondbacks against Zach Thompson (2-4, 5.18 ERA) in the first five innings.
Zac Gallen has always been an excellent pitcher with trouble staying healthy. The Diamondbacks have been great behind him (7-2 in his starts). He's allowing just 24.6% hard contact, with a FIP of 2.99 and xFIP of 3.63. Thompson hasn't had similar success, allowing 27.3% hard contact, with a FIP of 5.07 and xFIP of 4.33. The Pirates are just 4-5 behind Thompson. It's clear the Diamondbacks have the starting pitching advantage here.
Fanduel Sportsbook is giving us the Diamondbacks F5 line at -144, which I consider great value given the starter differential. Gallen hasn't been great in his last three starts (2-0, 5.06 ERA), but the fact that he's earned two wins despite averaging just 5.1 innings in those three starts makes me optimistic that the trend will continue today.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Money Line (-144) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Reds
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN -184
WSH: Patrick Corbin | CIN: Luis Castillo
We'll head out to Great American Ballpark for our second play of the day. The offenses have been the name of the game in this series so far, with these two teams combining for 40 runs in the first three games on the weekend. While most people will be looking at the over in this one, I'll be taking a second first five bet. It seems like a good day to back Luis Castillo (2-2, 3.38 ERA) against Patrick Corbin (1-8, 6.96 ERA).
Despite his 3.38 ERA, Castillo has been relatively unlucky in his first five starts of 2022, given his 2.92 FIP and 2.91 xFIP. I never really know exactly if and when I can trust Castillo, as he seems to be one of the guys who consistently burns me, but the way the Reds have been hitting, I figure he can hold the Nationals at bay to get the F5 win here. The reason I think that is just because of how poor Patrick Corbin has been. To give Corbin credit, he's been pretty unlucky as well, given his 4.55 FIP and 4.27 xFIP. However, his 37.6% hard contact rate against leads me to believe there's no reason that the Reds won't stay hot and hit him around today.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Reds F5 line at -170, which I know is a bit juiced. I won't be putting a full unit on this either, as Castillo will have to earn more "respect" from me first. This is more of a Corbin fade than anything, especially considering the Nationals are an awful 1-10 behind the southpaw. Neither of these teams has much to be desired in their bullpens either, so I'll save the extra 14 cents on the first five.
Pick: Reds F5 Money Line (-170) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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