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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 4, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 33-20-1 (+7.26 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CWS -174
DET: Matthew Boyd | CWS: Michael Kopech
We got a win and a push on Friday, and we'll look to push on into Sunday. I'll start things off out in the Windy City, as the Tigers and White Sox wrap up their series.
The visiting Tigers will send Matthew Boyd (3-4, 5.96 ERA) to the mound. Boyd is scheduled for some positive regression given his 4.40 xERA and 5.12 xFIP. That doesn't offer much for him today, though, and neither does his projected 4.76 SIERA. He'll take on a White Sox offense that ranks 13th in wOBA (.333) and 11th in wRC+ (112) against left-handed pitching. Chicago projects to a .370 wOBA and 33.75% hard contact rate today.
On the other hand, the White Sox will send out Michael Kopech (3-5, 4.52 ERA). Contrary to Boyd, Kopech is due for negative regression given his 5.44 xERA and 4.69 xFIP, according to Fangraphs. Fortunately for Kopech, I don't foresee that happening today given that Detroit ranks 28th in wOBA (.289) and 26th in wRC+ (83) with a .288 wOBA in this one.
The White Sox have a pretty clear advantage both on the mound and at the plate in this one. They also have the benefit of having Monday off, while Detroit has to travel east to Philly for Monday night. The Tigers' bullpen is projected slightly better than Chicago's, so I'll just stick with the F5 moneyline here, which we can get at -158 on FanDuel.
Pick: White Sox F5 Moneyline (-158), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.58 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -155
NYY: Domingo German | LAD: Bobby Miller
I'll wrap things up for this weekend on Sunday Night Baseball as the Yankees and Dodgers wrap up their series.
The Yankees will send Domingo German to the mound. German (3-3, 3.98 ERA) has been relatively solid this season. Even his projected regression (4.28 xERA, 4.21 xFIP) are relatively impressive numbers. However, he projects to a 4.71 SIERA in this one against a Dodgers offense that projects to a .363 wOBA and 45.31% hard contact rate. This is "on brand" for LA, who ranks second in both wOBA (.343) and wRC+ (118) against righties.
Conversely, the Dodgers will be sending Bobby Miller (2-0, 1.64 ERA) to the mound for his third career start. His expected stats are pretty darn good, too (2.46 xERA, 3.34 xFIP). He projects to a 3.70 SIERA in this one, and the Yankees project to a .332 wOBA and 30.81% hard contact rate. The Bombers have held steady in the middle of the pack against righties, ranking 16th in wOBA (.317) and 12th in wRC+ (102).
Neither team has to play on Monday, making this Sunday Night Baseball matchup more intriguing as neither team has to deal with the getaway day blues. While I do think the Yankees could steal this one late, I'll ride the hot hand and back rookie Bobby Miller and the Dodgers in the first five innings, which we can get at -142 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Moneyline (-142), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.42 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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