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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 9-6-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for June 3, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Marlins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIA -195
OAK: Luis Medina | MIA: Eury Perez
We'll begin with an afternoon square-off in Miami. The Athletics are looking to bounce back following a 4-0 loss to the Marlins on Friday, though I'm not so optimistic. Oakland is playing historically bad baseball in 2023, and they show few signs of righting the ship, winning just six of 30 contests since the beginning of May. It's low-hanging fruit at this point, but let's dive into why the Athletics' struggles will spill over into Saturday.
Luis Medina takes the bump for Oakland. His MLB career is just five appearances deep, but the results have not been very encouraging so far. The right-hander sports an ugly 6.14 xERA, which includes a .550 xSLG, .378 xwOBA, 11.6% barrel rate, and 44.2% hard-hit rate. There's not a lot going right for Medina, and his mediocre minor-league numbers don't suggest things will improve any time soon. He posted a 7.43 ERA through 13 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season and a 5.24 ERA in 92.2 Double-A innings in 2022.
The Marlins don't bring one of the league's most imposing offenses, scoring only 3.7 runs per game, but they aren't without firepower. Luis Arraez leads the majors with his .374 batting average, while Jorge Soler narrowly trails the major-league home run lead. The lower half of the order doesn't move the needle nearly as much, but there's enough to rally around. Altogether, Miami carries a middling .709 OPS against right-handed pitching for the season, up to .727 since the beginning of May. They're trending in the right direction.
Eury Perez is the league's top pitching prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He has just four career starts, sporting an impressive 2.84 ERA. The advanced analytics suggest negative regression is in Perez's future, but unlike Medina, Perez's ceiling potential is much more encouraging. He posted a 2.32 ERA in six starts at Double-A this season and only just turned 20 years old a month ago. Perez's 12.7% walk rate is problematic, though his minor-league numbers tell us the issue shouldn't persist. There's plenty of growing for Perez to do, but this is the easiest matchup he could hope to draw at the top level.
The Athletics score just 3.4 runs per game on the season. That includes a league-worst .623 OPS against right-handed pitching, alongside similarly weak .129 ISO and 79 wRC+. Outside of Esteury Ruiz racking up stolen bases, there's not a lot to get excited about with this lineup. Brent Rooker was their lone bright spot with his torrid start this season, but he's hitting .198 since April ended and has not hit a home run in three weeks.
Miami's reputation doesn't support the fact that they bring a winning 30-28 record into play today. Their top prospect is on the mound opposite a struggling Luis Medina, the league's worst bullpen (6.13 ERA) and baseball's worst offense. I'm confident the Marlins can pull off a decisive victory in this spot.
Pick: Marlins -1.5 Run Line (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -150
SEA: Bryan Woo | TEX: Andrew Heaney
Moving on to game two of the Mariners-Rangers series, which follows a 2-0 victory for Texas on Friday. The Rangers lead the AL West behind the best offense in baseball, a strong pitching rotation, and the greatest run differential in the league this season (+133). On the flip side, the Mariners are middling in most respects. The potential is there for a great team, but the results have yet to reflect their potential. There are enough reasons to bet on the Rangers for a decisive victory here.
Bryan Woo takes the mound for Seattle today, making his major-league debut. As one of the more heralded pitching prospects in Seattle's minor league system, Woo's pedigree is nothing to scoff at. He posted a strong 2.05 ERA through nine appearances at Double-A this season and will look to build off that success. That said, Woo is obviously inexperienced and is essentially being thrown to the sharks in this one.
The Rangers bring the league's best offense. They score 6.2 points per game behind a stacked lineup featuring Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and more. Texas carries an outstanding .775 OPS against right-handed pitching, including a .182 ISO, .335 wOBA, and 113 wRC+. If any team can spoil Woo's debut, it's the Rangers.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney gets the nod for Texas. He sports a strong 3.90 xERA through 10 starts, including a .223 xBA and 33.8% hard-hit rate. Heaney has surrendered a total of two earned runs over his last three outings. He isn't immune to getting hit, but he does match up well in this game. The Mariners' offense scores a middling 4.3 runs per game, but they're specifically terrible against left-handed pitching. They own an awful .669 OPS against southpaws, the fourth-worst mark in the league, alongside an 89 wRC+. Heaney should be able to keep the Seattle lineup quiet.
The Rangers should have their way in this game. Heaney is a perfect fit to shut down the Mariners, and Bryan Woo is about to find out the hard way how explosive major-league hitting can be. There's nearly a two-run difference in the teams' per-game run-scoring average. I expect something along those lines to play out today.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 Run Line (+130) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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