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Happy Tuesday, everyone! Today we have our usual massive MLB slate of Tuesday baseball. Today we will focus on one moneyline bet and one run line bet. As I will explain later, we are banking on some regression today and trusting some offensive trends from throughout the season. I have been hot when it comes to picking moneylines and run lines, so I will look to keep the momentum rolling into today.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, June 27, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Run Line: TEX -1.5 (-106)
DET: Matt Manning | TEX: Martin Perez
We start our action today in Arlington with a matchup between the Tigers and the Rangers. Matt Manning will be toeing the rubber for the Tigers, and Martin Perez will get the ball for the Rangers. Both these pitchers are in the bottom third of the league regarding SIERA and have been average at best this season. Manning has a 5.47 SIERA, 14.6% K, 6.3% BB and a .267 BAA. Perez has a 5.11 SIERA, 15.3% K, 7.6% BB and a .278 BAA.
The advantage here for the Rangers comes on the offensive side of the ball, which is a significant edge for them. The Rangers are the second-best offense in baseball against right-hand pitching. They own a 117 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .451 SLG, and a 37.1% hard hit. Conversely, the Tigers against left-hand pitching are in the bottom third of baseball. They own a 96 wRC+, .307 wOBA, .398 SLG, and a 36.2% hard hit.
If Perez can have his normal outing of limiting damage and pitch deep into this game, I expect the Rangers offense to carry them tonight. I believe the Rangers cover the -1.5 tonight.
Pick: Rangers run line -1.5 (-106) FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Mets
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM -140
MIL: Julio Teheran | NYM: David Peterson
We are going to play a game here for our last best. It's called the game of regression, and we are betting on two pitchers on opposite sides of the spectrum here. Julio Teheran enters today's start with a 1.53 ERA. He has a 4.75 xFIP a 4.69 SIERA and a .211 BABIP. David Peterson enters today's start with an 8.08 ERA. He has a 3.42 xFIP a 3.76 SIERA and a .404 BABIP!
History tells us that these numbers will eventually even out, and what better time than now? Peterson gets the Brewers, one of the league's worst against left-hand pitching. They own a 79 wRC+, .288 wOBA, .350 SLG, and a 33.8% hard hit. The Mets have been one of the best teams against righties. They own a 102 wRC+, .314 wOBA, .391 SLG, and a 32.4% hard hit.
I hope the regression monster shows up today for both pitchers. The matchups suggest that this could be the game it happens, and I like being ahead of the trends in predicting these things.
Pick: Mets moneyline -140 DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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