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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, June 26, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 41-29-2 (+4,24 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -200
MIN: Sonny Gray | ATL: Spencer Strider
We had a rough one on Sunday, dropping both plays. We’ll look to turn things back around and start the new week off with a bang as we start in Atlanta – where we’ll bound to see a pitchers’ duel between the Twins and Braves.
The visiting Twins will be sending ace Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.56 ERA) to the mound. Gray was great to begin the season but has tapered off a bit lately, allowing five earned runs on nine hits and six walks in nine innings across his last two starts. It’ll be a tough ask for him to retreat to his early-season form against the Braves, who project to a .371 wOBA against the righty in this one.
The Braves will be sending an ace of their own to the mound, as it’ll be Spencer Strider (8-2, 3.93 ERA). While the Twins’ Sonny Gray is due for negative regression (3.77 xERA, 3.74 xFIP), Strider (3.36 xERA, 2.90 xFIP) appears to be heading in the opposite direction. He projects to a 2.95 SIERA today against a Twins lineup that projects to a respectable .335 wOBA, but a 44.71% strikeout rate.
Both teams had relatively similar treks down to Atlanta after Sunday’s matinee slate, but the Braves do own a slight advantage here. They’ll be at home after a week-long road trip. They’re also the hotter team in this spot. I’ll back them on the run line, which we can get at +105 on FanDuel.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+105), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 units to win 1.05 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Mariners
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SEA -260
WSH: Trevor Williams | SEA: Luis Castillo
I’ll head out to Seattle for my second play of the day, as the Nationals and Mariners open up a three-game set in Seattle.
Trevor Williams (4-4, 4.14 ERA) will take the ball for the Nationals today. Williams is due for some negative regression, showing a 5.23 xERA and 4.58 xFIP on Fangraphs. He projects to a 4.53 SIERA in this one, but the Mariners don’t really look like they’ll take advantage of him in this spot. They project to just a .318 wOBA and 29.91% hard contact rate in this one.
Speaking of the Mariners, it’ll be Luis Castillo toeing the rubber for them tonight. Castillo (4-6, 2.89 ERA) has been exceptional apart from some bad win/loss luck to this point. While his 3.80 xERA and 3.70 xFIP do show potential for negative regression, I see something similar with Castillo as I do for Williams. He projects to a 3.84 SIERA against a Nationals lineup who projects to a .306 wOBA and 30.81% hard contact rate.
We’ll take a look at the F5 under in this game, which we can get for 4.5 (-118) on FanDuel. I have full confidence that Castillo will be able to keep the Nationals lineup in check, it’ll simply be a matter of if Trevor Williams can keep the Mariners’ mashers at bay. Considering they had to travel all the way across the country, from Baltimore to Seattle, makes me confident their lineup will take a bit to wake up.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.18 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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