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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/26/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! Hope your weekend has gone well. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 26, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 34-44-1, -17.82 units
- Sides: 27-31, -13.83 units
- Totals: 6-13-1, -5.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Rays
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: TB -235
PIT: Roansy Contreras | TB: Shane McClanahan
I'll be heading out to Tampa and looking at an NRFI to start our day today. We managed to bounce back and make somewhat of a dent in our difficult albeit unlucky sail through this MLB season in these articles. NRFIs have been consistent this season for me, and I always opt towards playing them on Sundays given the weirdness of the getaway day across baseball.
The reason I like this play so much, aside from the low total at 6.5, is there are two bonafide studs on the mound for their respective teams. Shane McClanahan has executed seven of 10 scoreless first innings on the year at home. While that 70% clip isn't eye-popping for a pitcher of McClanahan's caliber, it's noteworthy that in two of those three games where he allowed a run in the first he was facing the Yankees. He's 10-4 on NRFIs overall. On the other hand, Roansy Contreras has been perfect in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in each of his six starts.
FanDuel has the NRFI at -156 in this one or 60.93% implied odds. The Rays have gone scoreless in 26 of 39 home games (66.67%) and 50 of 71 games (70.42%) overall. The Pirates have been held scoreless in 27 of 34 road games (79.41%) and 54 of 71 (76.06%) overall. My model gives the NRFI a 63.52% chance of hitting, so we're getting good value on this play.
Pick: Pirates @ Rays NRFI (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Brewers
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: MIL +124
TOR: Jose Berrios | MIL: Chi Chi Gonzalez
I'll head back out to Milwaukee for our second play of the day. The Brewers came up big for us yesterday, despite making me a little bit nervous towards the end of the game. I'll be backing them once again today, though not on the money line, but rather the +1.5 run line. I'll be backing Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-1, 6.75 ERA) as he takes on a daunting Toronto lineup that ranks fourth in OPS (.746), eighth in wRC+ (110), and third in hard contact (34%) against right-handed pitchers. It's a tough ask out of Gonzalez, but he has started once against the Blue Jays lineup this season with Minnesota. He tossed three innings of three-run ball, which resulted in a 9-3 Twins victory. His 3.90 xFIP shows that he should see some improvements in the form of run prevention, and I'm hoping that comes today against a Blue Jays lineup who will likely once again be without leadoff hitter George Springer.
On the other hand, Toronto starter Jose Berrios (5-3, 5.11 ERA) hasn't been on his game whatsoever this season. While a member of the Twins last season, Berrios tossed a gem, striking out 12 in six innings of no-hit baseball. I can't say I expect that same pitcher today. After pitching a couple of solid games at the beginning of the month, Berrios has allowed nine runs in his last two starts, including a four-inning, six-earned run outing against the struggling White Sox on Monday. While the Toronto offense is daunting, Milwaukee's is not anything to turn your nose at, either. They rank ninth in OPS (.730), 14th in wRC+ (103), and sixth in hard contact (32.2%). If the Brewers can get to Toronto's bullpen early, they have a very real shot at taking this game and grabbing a series win.
FanDuel is giving us -138 on the Brewers +1.5 run line, or 57.98% implied odds. My model gives the Brewers a 60.06% chance of covering this line, albeit ultimately losing the game 4.62-4.54. Nevertheless, we're getting solid value on this line. It's also worth noting that following this game the Blue Jays will head back north of the border to start up a three-game set with the Red Sox on Monday, while the Brewers have Monday off to travel down to Tampa for a series with the Rays. With all of this considered, I'll comfortably take the Brewers to keep this one close.
Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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