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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 25, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 41-27-2 (+7.04 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Cardinals
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: STL +116
CHC: Marcus Stroman | STL: Matthew Liberatore
After going 2-0 Friday, we'll look to finish up the weekend strong with a pair of first-five inning plays, ironically with the same odds. We'll start out in London, as the Cubs and Cardinals wrap up the London Series this morning.
It'll be Marcus Stroman taking the ball for the Cubs in this one. Stroman (9-4, 2.28 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers across the league in 2023 and will look to continue that form today. His 3.66 xERA and 3.62 xFIP show that he is due for some regression, albeit not much. He projects to a 3.88 SIERA today against a Cardinals lineup that projects to a .304 wOBA.
He'll take on Matthew Liberatore, as the southpaw will take the ball for St. Louis in this one. Liberatore (1-2, 6.12 ERA) comes into this one with a 7.61 xERA, 5.59 xFIP, and projects to a 5.33 SIERA against a Cubs lineup that put up nine runs in yesterday's matchup. Chicago projects to a .318 wOBA and 37.24% hard contact against the lefty today.
There's a massive pitching mismatch here. Both teams have the same travel plans post-game as they head back over the Atlantic, giving neither of them a massive advantage in that aspect. The bullpens are rather even, so I'll back the Cubs on the first five moneyline here, which we can get at -140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Cubs F5 Moneyline (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.4 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Padres
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SD -200
WSH: MacKenzie Gore | SD: Seth Lugo
I'll finish the week out in San Diego as the Nationals and Padres wrap up their series.
It'll be lefty MacKenzie Gore taking the mound for the Nationals. The 24-year-old starter brings in a 3-6 record with a 4.02 ERA on the season. His 4.89 xERA and 3.70 xFIP are a bit contradictory, but he projects to a 4.18 SIERA today. The Padres have a massive offensive advantage here, projecting to a .356 wOBA and 42.64% hard contact rate.
He'll take on Seth Lugo, a familiar face to those longer-tenured Nationals. Lugo (3-3, 3.86 ERA), the longtime Met, brings in a 4.76 ERA and 3.76 xFIP into this matchup. He also projects to a 3.20 SIERA here. As I mentioned, San Diego has a massive offensive advantage here. The Nationals project to a .301 wOBA and 33.84% hard contact rate.
The Padres do have the bullpen advantage here as well, but I'll stick to the first five run line here, which we can also get at -140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Padres F5 -0.5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.4 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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