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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, June 25, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-44-1, -19.05 units
- Sides: 25-31, -15.06 units
- Totals: 6-13-1, -5.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Brewers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -166
TOR: Yusei Kikuchi | MIL: Corbin Burnes
Heading out to Milwaukee for the first play of the day after another tough day yesterday. Home teams went 3-12 yesterday, a trend I can't see repeating today. I'll be backing Corbin Burnes (5-4, 2.31 ERA) against Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 4.94 ERA). While the Brewers don't hit lefties as well as righties, I could think of no better time for them to turn it around against Kikuchi today. The southpaw has struggled in his last three starts, pitching to a 10.38 ERA and a 2.31 WHIP in his last three starts.
While Kikuchi has struggled, Burnes has been creeping back to where his Cy Young form of last season. He's 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts while keeping his WHIP at 0.92. Burnes has pitched to a 2.70 xFIP this season while striking out 32.6% of hitters. Things could get dicey given that he's allowing 31.5% hard contact on the season, but overall I expect Burnes to keep the Jays at bay today.
FanDuel has the Brewers at -166 as I'm writing this, good for 62.4% implied odds. My model gives Milwaukee a 67.57% chance of winning this game, so we're getting strong value on the home favorite here. The Brewers fare well when Burnes has pitched interleague games, winning four straight. I'll back the Brewers' significant pitching advantage in this one.
Pick: Brewers Money Line (-166) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -162
LAD: Mitch White | ATL: Max Fried
I'll head out to Atlanta for the second play of the day. The Dodgers took game one behind a spectacular Julio Urias performance, and I'll be backing Atlanta to get even with them tonight. The Dodgers will be sending Mitch White (1-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound while the home Braves will give Max Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA) the ball. Mitch White has been solid but did allow a run on two hits in two innings against the Braves earlier in the season.
On the other hand, Max Fried has been excellent for Atlanta this season. He pitched seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers earlier this season with Mookie bets in the lineup, whom the Dodgers will be without today. While the Dodgers have no problems hitting right-handed pitching, they struggle against left-handed pitching. They carry an OPS of .796 against righties but just .684 against their southpaw counterparts.
FanDuel is giving us -162 on the Braves tonight, good for 61.83% implied odds. My model gives the Sox a 64.32% chance of winning this game, giving us solid value despite the line. While the Dodgers have won four straight road games, last night was just their first after losing five straight in Atlanta, and I'll back the Braves with their ace on the mound.
Pick: Braves Money Line (-162) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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