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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 24, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-42-1, -17.05 units
- Sides: 25-29, -13.06 units
- Totals: 6-13-1, -5.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ARI -166
DET: Rony Garcia | ARI: Merrill Kelly
I'll head out to Arizona for our first play of the day as we attempt to turn around what was truly a pitiful weekend last week. Both of these teams are coming into this game off of a day of rest, with each team getting swept in their first series of the week. The Tigers will send Rony Garcia (1-2, 4.97 ERA) to the mound. Garcia has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his last three starts. While he's due for some positive regression, given his 3.47 xFIP, he has allowed 39% hard contact on the year and that's something I want to take advantage of today.
On the other hand, Merrill Kelly (6-4, 3.46 ERA) will take the ball for the Diamondbacks. Kelly has had somewhat of an up-and-down season thus far, but he's locked things up of late going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. He is due for regression given his 4.09 xFIP, and he is allowing 29.7% hard contact on the season. I can't see the regression occurring today though against a Tigers lineup that ranks 29th in OPS (.584) and dead last in wRC+ (68) against right-handed pitching.
FanDuel has the Diamondbacks at -166 on the full-game money line, but I'll be opting for the first-half money line in this one at -160. Simply put, the Tigers' offense is abysmal, and while Kelly has been streaky I'll ride the wave of a guy who's pitching well and has proven he can put together quality start after quality start this season. The Diamondbacks have clear advantages both offensively and in regards to starting pitching according to my model, so I'll be backing them here.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Money Line (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS -172
BAL: Austin Voth, Kyle Bradish (PLR) | CWS: Michael Kopech
I'll head out to Windy City for the second play of the day. These two teams opened up their series last night, with the Orioles taking the first game of the series 4-0. They'll be sending Austin Voth (0-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound, seemingly to open for Kyle Bradish (1-4, 7.38 ERA). I'm assuming they're opening Voth, who has pitched well, to protect Bradish who's pitched extremely poorly of late (0-1, 9.61 ERA) in his last five starts. The White Sox have significantly underperformed against right-handed pitching this year, but Bradish has been so bad I can't help but take advantage.
On the other hand, Michael Kopech (2-3, 2.38 ERA) to the mound. He's actually lowered his WHIP from 0.99 on the season to 0.86 in his last three starts. Relative to previous years, the Orioles have been swinging it well against right-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in OPS (.675) and 21st in wRC+ (91). Kopech's 4.54 xFIP is concerning, but he's allowed just a 23.1% hard contact rate on the year, and the Orioles have hit the ball hard at just a 29.5% rate on the season.
FanDuel is giving us -172 on the White Sox tonight, good for 62.32% implied odds. My model gives the Sox a 66.3% chance of winning this game, giving us solid value despite the heavy line. The White Sox are reeling and will have to turn it around sooner than later, and each loss feels like one day closer to them firing manager Tony La Russa. At their core though, they're still a good team with a good starter on the mound. Their loss to Baltimore last night was just their first in the last nine meetings between the two teams, and their first in the last six games against the O's at home. I project them to turn the tide this evening and get a win.
Pick: White Sox Money Line (-172) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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