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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 23, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 39-27-2 (+5.04 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Reds
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: CIN +136
ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver | CIN: Luke Weaver
I'll start things off where I took a loss on Monday night: out in Cincinnati and taking an over.
The Braves will send AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) to the mound. Smith-Shawver has been pretty good, albeit across a small sample size. According to Fangraphs, he brings in a 2.64 xERA and 4.78 xFIP into this one. He projects to a 4.45 SIERA in this matchup, against a scorching hot Reds lineup that projects to a .374 wOBA against him.
The Reds will send Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver (1-2, 6.47 ERA) has been frankly terrible this season but is due for some positive regression. He brings in a 5.24 xERA, 4.63 xFIP, and projects to a 4.81 SIERA today. However, it won't be easy against a Braves lineup that projects to a .374 wOBA.
The Braves struggled to put up runs in their weather-shortened series against the Phillies, which is why I'm surprised the run total is so high. Nevertheless, I'm grabbing the over here, and I think this will be a great series between two scorching-hot teams.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Rays
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TB -265
KC: Zack Greinke | TB: Zach Eflin
I'll head down to Tampa next, where I'll be looking at a run line.
The visiting Royals will send Zack Greinke (1-7, 4.81 ERA) to the mound. The 20-year veteran brings a 5.04 xERA and 4.11 xFIP into this one but from what I've seen this year, hasn't pitched as poorly as the numbers suggest. However, he projects to a 4.30 SIERA against a Rays offense that projects to a .320 wOBA.
It'll be Zach Eflin (8-3, 3.26 ERA) taking the ball for the Rays. After watching Eflin pitch in Philly for so long, it pains me to be this confident in backing him somewhere else. Nevertheless, Eflin has (expectedly) been great for the Rays in 2023, so long as he's on the field. He projects to a 3.80 SIERA in this one against a Royals lineup that projects to just a .302 wOBA against him tonight.
The pesky Royals took the series opener last night, scoring four runs in the final three innings to take care of business. I'll bet on the Rays run line tonight, which we can get at -122 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (-122), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.22 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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