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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/22/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have an eight-game MLB schedule this Thursday, June 22 evening as we have a mix of afternoon and evening baseball on tap! There's a wealth of value on the board so let's dive in head first and see what's in store!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA: (-135)
DET: Mitch Keller| MIA: Braxton Garrett
We have a stellar pitching matchup on tap tonight in South Florida as the Pirates' Mitch Keller and the Marlins' Braxton Garrett collide as two pitchers on the rise.
Keller is enjoying his breakout season in 2023, tossing a 3.62 ERA across 15 starts while the peripherals are strong. The right-hander also sports a 3.38 FIP, 3.43 SIERA, 28.3% K%, and a 21.5% K-BB%, all of which are career-best figures at this point in the season. He sports a 4.44 ERA on the road, however, his 3.17 FIP, 30.5% K%, and 23.2% K-BB% on the road are all vastly superior to his numbers at home.
As for Garrett, the left-hander has similar numbers to Keller entering this one. He carries a 3.88 ERA into action alongside a 3.43 FIP, 3.27 SIERA, and a 21.7% K-BB% across 14 appearances (13 starts) on the campaign. Interestingly, Garrett has been roughed up to the tune of a 6.35 ERA at home where he has yielded a .299 batting average and an .883 OPS across 28 1/3 innings on the season. His 5.11 FIP at home is well more than double his 2.28 mark on the road.
In addition to Garrett's home woes, a major difference in this one comes down to offense. Both teams struggle against right-handed pitching and thrive against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately for the Marlins, the advantage here is with a Pirates team that is tied for eighth with a .332 wOBA off lefties while the Marlins sit 20th with a .306 wOBA versus righties.
With a suspect bullpen on the Pirates' part, let's stick with the starters in this one and grab the Pirates to win the first five innings tonight in Miami.
Pick: Pirates F5 moneyline (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYY (-120)
SEA: Bryan Woo| NYY: Domingo German
The Mariners and Yankees get back at it tonight in the Bronx as Seattle looks to avoid a three-game sweep.
Getting the ball for the road side is 23-year-old Bryan Woo who makes just his fourth start of his big-league career. Woo was summoned straight from Double-A while his 7.30 ERA in his first three starts is a bit misleading. Woo yielded six earned runs in two innings against a lethal Texas Rangers offense in his MLB debut but has since allowed just four earned runs across his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 frames, pitching a career-high 5 2/3 innings his last time out against the White Sox.
Woo enters this one sporting a stellar 3.68 FIP, 2.31 SIERA, and a massive 34% K-BB% in his young career to this point.
On the other side is Domingo German who has had a decent season to this point. German sports a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts but his 4.64 FIP and 4.25 SIERA don't suggest much, if any, positive regression on the horizon. His 14.9% K-BB% is middling, although his 2.92 ERA/3.57 FIP at home this season is much better than his work on the road.
The truth is neither offense has been much good against righties this season. New York sits 19th with a .307 wOBA versus righties while the Mariners are down at 25th with a .300 mark. Much had been made about the Yankees' offensive struggles of late as they sit 27th with a .278 wOBA over the last two weeks, however, the Mariners aren't much better at 20th with a .308 wOBA in that time.
We also have similar bullpens, both of which rank in the top five. The Yankees own the best bullpen ERA in baseball while the Mariners sit fourth. Seattle sits second in bullpen FIP with the Yankees sitting fifth in that department. Not much separation between the two groups at all.
This one boils down to starting pitching and I'll take the rookie Woo to see some more positive regression kick in. With a SIERA roughly five runs below his ERA, he should be able to keep a scuffling Yankees offense in check while a stellar Seattle bullpen should bring this one home at plus-money odds.
Pick: Mariners moneyline (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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