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Thunder Dan's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/21/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's a classic split-slate Wednesday with about half of the MLB games going off this afternoon and another half tonight. The afternoon games are usually "getaway games" which means they are the final game of Monday-Wednesday 3-game series and some lineups could be funky with players getting a mid-week respite. Definitely check those lineups before making your final decision on some bets today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | ML: TOR -135
TOR: Kevin Gausman | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
This series wraps up with a battle between ace pitchers as the defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara squares off against the king of the splitter, Kevin Gausman.
It's been a strange series so far. The Marlins won 11-0 in the opener, but the Jays won last night 2-0 while both starting pitchers (Eury Perez and Yusei Kikuchi) were dominant.
Toronto has been mildly disappointing this year as they can't seem to get their offense going. Miami has exceeded expectations behind some strong pitching and is sitting in second place in a very competitive NL East.
I have to side with the Jays here today. This pitching matchup isn't as close as it might appear. Alcantara has not pitched anywhere close to as effectively as he did last year and enters today with a 4.97 ERA and 4.42 SIERA. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. Meanwhile, Gausman is having a fantastic season and carries a 3.04 SIERA into today's game - the best mark of any pitcher on the slate.
Kevin Gausman, 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/MrHPeLnVw8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2023
The Toronto bullpen has been better than Miami's this year, too, so I am not going with the F5 angle here just in case it takes Toronto some time to score (as it did last night). But I think the Jays pull this one out.
Pick: Jays ML (-135) FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Reds
O/U: 9 | ML: CIN -230
COL: Connor Seabold | CIN: Andrew Abbott
The Reds are simply unstoppable right now, but I have no interest in their ML or run line today as all streaks come to an end. Not that I don't think that they will win, but the best angle here is not on betting the winner in my opinion.
Let's just bet on more offense! This series saw 9 runs in the opener and another 14 runs last night. We have two young pitchers going again today in a very unfriendly environment for pitching (fun fact - the Great American Ballpark is second only to Coors Field in park factor for hitters).
Seabold has been really bad when he's bad and just gave up nine earned runs in only three innings against the Braves. The Reds are better against righties, too, as they'll have both Jake Fraley and T.J. Friedl in the lineup today in addition to their rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz, who homered again last night.
I'm well aware that rookie Andrew Abbott has yet to allow any earned runs in his first three starts. But regression is coming as he's not missing enough bats, walking too many hitters, and allowing a sizeable number of fly balls. His SIERA is 5.78 which is wild when you consider his ERA is 0.00.
This game should feature more offense today, and even if both starters can hold down the fort for the first 5-6 innings, both of these bullpens have been below average as well.
Pick: OVER 9 runs (-115), FanDuel Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | ML: ARI -145
ARI: Zac Gallen | MIL: Julio Teheran
Let's add a third pick today, why not? I am a sucker for Zac Gallen and after a rough start against Detroit two weeks away, he bounced back with another dominant outing against Cleveland in his last start. I'm not sure why the Snakes aren't bigger favorites here, other than the books are far too confident in a spotty Milwaukee offense and a pitcher in Teheran who should be heading for some negative regression.
Zac Gallen, 94mph Fastball and 84mph Knuckle Curve, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/twZdEl3tPC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2023
Teheran has been able to shut down every opponent he's faced so far and has produced a sub-2.00 ERA in the process. But he has a SIERA over 4.00 and simply can't keep this up forever. I think he finally meets his match today against an Arizona team that is surging offensively and now ranks fifth in the major leagues in runs scored at over 5 runs per game.
Give me Gallen and the Snakes here and I think he can shut down the Brew Crew like his rotation mate Merrill Kelly did on Monday.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-145), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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