RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, June 19, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 38-26-2 (+5.04 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Reds
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: CIN -159
COL: Austin Gomber | CIN: Brandon Williamson
Finally bounced back after a middling last week or so to go 2-0 and up our win total to 5.04 units on the year. We'll take a look at an over and a moneyline today, starting out in Cincinnati.
The Rockies will send southpaw Austin Gomber (4-6, 7.29 ERA) to the mound tonight. According to his Fangraphs page, Gomber is projected for some positive regression, given his 7.20 xERA and 5.11 xFIP. Neither of these numbers is remotely impressive, and Gomber projects to a 5.31 SIERA against a Reds lineup that projects to a .371 wOBA and 38.28% hard contact rate today.
The Reds will send a southpaw of their own to the mound in Brandon Williamson. Williamson (1-0, 5.40 ERA) brings a 7.25 ERA and 5.51 xFIP into his seventh career start. He projects to a 5.76 SIERA in this one against a Rockies lineup that struggles against lefties on the road. Despite that, they project to a .330 wOBA and 44.49% hard contact rate against Williamson today.
Truthfully, I said a lot of words in those last two paragraphs that could be summed up in one sentence: both of these starters stink. The bullpens aren't good either, with Colorado's projected to a 4.83 SIERA and Cincinnati a 4.48 SIERA, the two worst on tonight's slate. I'll grab the over 10 here at -110 on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 10 (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Astros
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: HOU -130
NYM: Max Scherzer | HOU: Hunter Brown
I'll wrap things up down in Houston, and I need you guys and gals to hear me out on this one.
The Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound. Despite Scherzer's struggles (5-2, 4.45 ERA) this season, he is due for some positive regression, with a 3.62 xERA and 4.21 xFIP. He projects to a 3.04 SIERA in this one against an Astros lineup that could potentially be missing both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. They project to a .289 wOBA and 31.1% hard contact rate today.
On the other hand, the Astros will be sending Hunter Brown (6-2, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Brown has no doubt been impressive in his first full season and brings in a 3.64 ERA and 3.29 xFIP. While his projected 3.23 SIERA is very impressive, the visiting Mets do project to a .324 wOBA and 35.18% hard contact rate against him and the Astros bullpen.
So hear me out...the Mets have been bad, and Scherzer has been bad. However, the Astros have dropped four straight after getting swept by the Reds, and have lost seven of their last 10. I'll back the Mets here as slight dogs and hope to start this week off with a bang.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+110), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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