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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well. I sincerely apologize once again after yesterday. The Phillies were unable to give Nola any first five support, and the Cubs dinked and dunked their way to a victory over Kyle Wright and the Braves. Nevertheless, all I can do is get back after it today. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 17, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-42-1, -17.05 units
- Sides: 25-29, -13.06 units
- Totals: 6-13-1, -5.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WSH +152
PHI: Zach Eflin | WSH: Jackson Tetreault
I'll head back out to DC for our first play of the day, as the Nats and Phillies close out their five-game series. The Phillies have been on a tear in June, winning 15 of 17, and I think they continue to roll as they send righty Zach Eflin (2-4, 3.98 ERA) to the mound. This isn't as much of a bet on Eflin as it is on opposing start Jackson Tetreault (0-1, 15.75 ERA).
While I mentioned this is not necessarily a bet on Eflin, it can't be understated how well he's pitching lately. He's held a WHIP of 1.00 and ERA of 2.50 over his last three starts, and has only allowed a 20% hard contact rate on the season. As I mentioned yesterday, the Nationals are near the middle of the pack of the league in OPS and wRC+, and Eflin should keep the Phillies in this game. I can't be so sure if Tetreault can do that for the Nats. The rookie allowed seven runs in four innings in his debut. It's not like he "just needs to adjust to the Majors" either. He carried a 4.19 ERA in 58 innings in Triple-A before getting called up. It'll be a tough ask of him to navigate through this Phillies lineup that should at least feature Rhys Hoskins after the red-hot slugger had the day off Saturday. Should Bryce Harper find himself in the DH spot today, I can definitely see this line going north of -200 in Philadelphia's favor.
However this line sits at just -180 now, and while that's a heavy price to pay, I still see value here. While FanDuel's implied odds sit at 64.29%, my model gives the Phillies a 68.97% chance of winning. I mentioned yesterday that the Nationals' bullpen is gassed, and this series has done nothing to help. A bad starter and a tired, reeling bullpen isn't much of a recipe for success, so I'll take the Phillies to grab their 14th win in their last 17 games in Washington.
Pick: Phillies Money Line (-180) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +150
SF: Alex Cobb | PIT: Mitch Keller
I'll head out to Pittsburgh for the second play of the day as the Giants and Pirates close out their series. Both of these teams play tomorrow as well, with the Pirates welcoming in the Cubs as San Francisco heads down to Atlanta to take on the Braves. Despite the post-game travel, I'll be backing Alex Cobb (3-2, 5.73 ERA) against Mitch Keller (2-5, 5.07 ERA) this afternoon.
I've mentioned before that Cobb is seemingly the unluckiest pitcher in baseball. His numbers look brutal on the surface, but what lies beneath is a 23.8% hard contact rate and 2.37 xFIP. Look for him to bounce back and pitch a solid game against the Pirates who rank 28th in both OPS (.636) and wRC+ (81). On the other hand, I'll give credit where it's due, and acknowledge that Mitch Keller has been pitching well of late. He's 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts, but the Pirates can't seem to win behind him, having lost two of the three games.
FanDuel is giving us another heavy line on the Giants at -178, good for 62.03% implied odds. My model gives San Francisco a 71.03% chance of winning this one though, so we're getting very good value here. All the trends point in the Giants' favor as well, as they've won five straight games where the total has been between 7 and 8.5. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost six straight of Keller's home starts, as well as five straight Keller starts on Sundays. Back the Giants to take care of business and get the sweep.
Pick: Giants Money Line (-178) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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