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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, June 18, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 36-26-2 (+3.04 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: WSH +132
MIA: Jesus Luzardo | WSH: Patrick Corbin
Whew. Back to fading Patrick Corbin, all is right in the world again.
The visiting Marlins will send Jesus Luzardo (5-5, 4.17 ERA) to the mound. Luzardo has been very good since the beginning of 2021, although the "standard" numbers don't quite do him justice. He brings in a 3.76 ERA and 3.71 xFIP into this one, as well as a projected 3.12 SIERA. Washington is good against lefties, ranking ninth in wOBA (.336) and 12th in wRC+ (109), but projects to just a .286 wOBA in this one.
On the other hand, the Nationals will send the one and only Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin (4-7, 4.81 ERA) has a brutal 6.28 xERA headed into this game, and projects to a 5.09 SIERA against the Marlins today. Miami ranks fourth in both wOBA (.343) and wRC+ (117) against lefties and brings in a projected .348 wOBA and 40.05% hard contact rate into this matchup.
The Marlins actually have the superior bullpen here, but we're saving some money on the first five moneylines here. While the full-game moneyline sits at -156, we can grab the F5 moneyline at -150 on FanDuel.
Pick: Marlins F5 Moneyline (-150), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Mets
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: NYM -124
STL: Matthew Liberatore | NYM: Carlos Carrasco
I'll wrap things up for the weekend in New York where we took the loss on the Cardinals' F5 moneyline on Friday night. We'll stick to a F5 play here, this time the over.
The Cardinals will send 23-year-old Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore (1-2, 5.14 ERA) has been a bit lucky this season I suppose, given his 6.73 xERA and 5.20 xFIP. He brings in a projected 5.25 SIERA into this one against a Mets lineup that ranks rather poorly against lefties actually. They come in ranked 21st in wOBA (.314) and 16th in wRC+ (102) against lefties. However, the Mets project to a .351 wOBA against Liberatore today though, even without Pete Alonso.
The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound in this one. Carrasco (2-3, 5.71 ERA) brings in a 6.04 ERA and 5.46 xFIP. Carrasco has been solid of late, allowing two runs or less in three of his last four starts, but that hasn't done much to improve his overall 2023 numbers. He projects to a 5.36 SIERA in this one against a Cardinals lineup that projects to a .333 wOBA and 44.19% hard contact rate. St. Louis ranks 11th in wOBA (.325) and ninth in wRC+ (107).
Both bullpens bring in decent numbers, with the Cardinals' bullpen projected to a 3.85 SIERA and the Mets' bullpen a 3.38 SIERA, both in the upper half of the league. I can't justify taking the game total at 9.5, but I will grab the F5 over 5, which we can get at -125 on DraftKings.
Pick: F5 Over 5 (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.25 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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