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Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/14/22)

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/14/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

There are few games that are as perfect as advertised, but that was the case with the Marlins and Phillies yesterday. Between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola, the two aces each pitched over seven innings, only allowing two earned runs each. I'm a sucker for dominant pitching, and when you factor the walk-off finish, this truly was a special game. Let's hope for more of that today!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, June 9th, 2022, for the 16-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Today features a double-header and a lot of games, leading to some notable value opportunities being on the table. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

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MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI -123
CIN: Tyler Mahle | ARI: Zach Davies

In search for the best game of the day, we aren't exactly starting at the top of the barrel in terms of the quality of teams. Hey, all games count the same!

Don't look now, but Reds starter Tyler Mahle is back to being the pitcher that teams ought to covet at the trade deadline. For the season, the 27-year-old possesses a 3.96 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 15.3% K-BB, but he has been exceptional (3.15 SIERA, 22.4% K-BB) in his last three starts, and is overall progressing in terms of missing bats as the season has gone on. It also helps that his home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) on the road is less than half of what is is at home, with Chase Field limiting home runs at the fifth-highest rate, per Baseball Savant. A talented pitcher who misses bats and doesn't have to deal with what historically has been his main issue? Sign me up!

On the other hand, the underlying numbers for Zach Davies (10.8% K-BB) aren't specifically promising, and they represent a peak season for him compared to years past. He is relying on a  .264 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed and other contact-quality suppression skills he has not demonstrated in the past, and you'd figure it's only a matter of time before those normalize. These two offenses had an identical 90 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) entering Monday, while Cincinnati has a significant pitching edge here. With that in mind, how are they not the favorites here? This is the type of value that doesn't come around often.

Pick: Cincinnati ML (-127), WynnBet Sportsbook

 

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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -169
ATL: Max Fried | WSH: Jackson Tetreault

How about those Braves. A few weeks ago, the defending champion's playoff hopes seemed to be on thin ice. Now, not so much. Atlanta has won twelve straight games, and, as a result, now have an 83.7% chance of making the postseason, per Fangraphs' playoff odds. While it can be risky to expect such a streak to continue, it's hard to pass them up.

Why? Well, it's Max Fried day! The ability to run a 19% K-BB while inducing a ground ball on over 50% of your batted balls isn't common, yet Fried is in a rare mold. We've seen him cut down on his fastballs while introducing a very impressive changeup (37% whiff, .211 xWOBA allowed) to his pitch mix. No team has hit a ground ball on a higher rate of their batted balls than the Nationals, while they rank in the bottom-ten in wRC+ against lefties this season. In other words, expect Fried to continue to shine.

On the other side, Jackson Tetreault, a 26-year-old with a projected ERA of 5.49 from Steamer projections and a 4.65 xFIP in Triple-A this season, now has to face a red-hot offense that has hit for the most power (.204 isolated power/ISO) of any team over the past 30 days. Behind him? The worst defense in terms of outs above average (OAA), as well as a below-average bullpen based on both SIERA and xFIP; this is significant against a Braves bullpen that has the best SIERA of all of baseball. Really, what facet of play is Washington remotely close to Atlanta in right now? It's time to empty the floodgates!

Pick: Atlanta Run Line (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St.Louis Cardinals

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -161
PIT: JT Brubaker | STL: Matthew Liberatore

Enough with picking a side, am I right? Let's mix it up with a total here. As they play a double-header today, the Cardinals will look to try to establish themselves as the top team in the NL Central, which should work against a Pirates team that is in the bottom three in run differential (-93). Wait, we're not worried about the money line or run line!

That's right; it's the under that is very appealing here, as is the case with most Cardinals games. After all, according to Baseball Savant, Busch Stadium is the third-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in all of baseball, while the Cardinals are a top-ten defense in OAA with a very strong infield consisting of Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt. It's been a rough going for starter Matthew Liberatore since being called up to the majors, but he's still a well-regarded prospect facing the fifth-worst offense in wRC+ versus lefties. Given everything working in his favor, it's going to be very hard for him not to succeed here.

Plus, despite being in first place in the NL Central, the Cardinals only rank 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Sans two rough starts to begin the season, Pirates starter JT Brubaker (3.92 SIERA, 15% K-BB) has been a very productive pitcher this season, while his notable home run problem is mitigated based on the ballpark he's pitching in and the fact that the Cardinals have the third-lowest team barrel rate (6.1%) this season. He should provide Pittsburgh with length here, and if the expected winning team isn't going to blow up for a lot of runs, it's hard for a total so large to go over. Particularly in the current run environment, the strong play is the under here.

Pick: Pittsburgh St.Louis Under 9.5 (-105), FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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