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Happy Tuesday, everyone! Today we have our usual massive MLB slate of Tuesday baseball. Today we are going to focus on two run-line bets. We have two elite matchups tonight that we can get value on by betting the run line compared to the moneyline. This is a perfect way to get value on teams in outstanding matchups, and that is what we will do here today.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Tigers
O/U: 8 | Run Line: ATL -1.5 (-154)
ATL: Spencer Strider | DET: Reese Olson
We start our action today in Detroit with a matchup between the Braves and the Tigers. Spencer Strider will be toeing the rubber for the Braves, and Reese Olson will get the ball for the Tigers. Strider has been dominant this season, pitching to a 6-2 record with a 2.65 SIERA, 40.3% K, and a 9.3% BB.
Olson, conversely, is 0-1 with a 3.60 SIERA, 23.7% K, and a 5.3% BB. He has made two big league starts in his career. Before his call-up in Triple-A this season, Olson was 2-3, with a 6.38 ERA in ten starts. The Braves will be his most formidable opponent to date, and I see them getting to him here significantly.
The Braves own a 104 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and a .436 SLG against right-hand pitching this season. They are a top-ten offense against the split and will now face Olson, who struggled in Triple-A. The Tigers own an 81 wRC+, .285 wOBA, and a .343 SLG against right-hand pitching this season. They are a bottom-five offense against the split and will now face arguably the best pitcher in the big leagues.
The Braves are 12-2 in games that Strider has started. They have won 6 of those twelve games by more than one run. The Tigers are one of the best matchups in the big leagues, and I expect them to cover the -1.5 on the Tigers today.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Astros
O/U: 8 | Run Line: HOU -1.5 (-130)
WAS: Patrick Corbin | HOU: Hunter Brown
The Washington Nationals will travel to Houston to take on the Astros. The Nationals enter play today with a 26-38 record. They are 3-7 over their last ten games. The Astros are 37-29 and are 4-6 over their last ten games.
The Astros will send Hunter Brown to the bump today. Brown is 5-3, with a 3.39 SIERA, 28.1% K, and an 8.2% BB. The Astros are 7-5 in games that Brown pitches and have won four of those seven games by more than a run. The Nationals will send Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin is 4-6 with a 4.78 SIERA, 14.0% K, and a 5.8% BB.
The Astros own a 111 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and a .437 SLG against left-hand pitching. They are an elite offense against left-hand pitching, and with Jose Altuve back in the lineup, they are even better than their season numbers suggest. The Nationals are one of the worst teams in baseball against right-hand pitching. They own an 84 wRC+, a .299 wOBA, and a .367 SLG.
The Astros own the advantage on the bump and at the plate, making this an excellent run-line bet.
Pick: Astros 1.5 (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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