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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, June 12, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 34-24-2 (+3.72 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -210
ATL: Charlie Morton | DET: Tyler Alexander
Woof, well I got the plays backward yesterday. Had I taken Diamondbacks -1.5 and Braves F5 -0.5, I would've gone 2-0. Alas, I took the opposite, and we head into today coming off of an 0-2 Sunday.
We'll look to bounce back today, though, in a classic bounce-back spot as we look to attack the Tigers again. The visiting Braves will send Charlie Morton (5-6, 3.89 ERA) to the mound. Morton has been solid in his age-39 season and will look to continue pitching well against a Tigers offense that, as previously mentioned multiple times in these articles, is awful against right-handed pitching. Morton projects to a 3.90 SIERA against Detroit today.
It'll be a bullpen game for the Tigers. They will start Tyler Alexander (1-1, 5.59 ERA), but he'll likely have a short leash. Alexander hasn't thrown more than 3.1 innings in an outing all season. The Braves will look to get to the Tigers early via attacking Alexander, and they project to a .380 wOBA and 39.86% hard contact rate against the lefty in this one.
I'm banking on the Braves to get to Alexander early and often here, and I'll back them to cover the F5 run line. The line is not up yet, but as soon as it is, I’ll be grabbing it.
Pick: Braves F5 -0.5, FanDuel Sportsbook, Bet to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Rangers
O/U: 9,5 | Moneyline: TEX -150
LAA: Tyler Anderson | TEX: Dane Dunning
I'll head down to Texas for my second game of the night as Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Angels head into town.
They'll send Tyler Anderson (3-1, 5.62 ERA) to the mound. Anderson's fastball velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year through his first 11 starts on the season. He gets no rest today either, coming up against a Rangers lineup that is completely dominant against left-handed pitching. They project to an insane .409 wOBA and 42.6% hard contact rate against Anderson today.
The Rangers will send Dane Dunning (5-1, 2.52 ERA) to the mound. What makes me a bit nervous is the massive regression that Dunning is potentially headed for. He brings in a 4.69 ERA and 4.61 xFIP while projecting to a 4.75 SIERA in this game in particular. It's not great, but this is more about the Rangers' offense and Dunning keeping them ahead than it is about Dunning shutting the Halos down.
The Rangers also bring in a far superior bullpen, so I'll grab Texas on the full-game moneyline, which we can get at -150 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-150), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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